Donald Trump

Tehran isn't likely to easily fold if/when Trump attacks. This means that the longer a military confrontation drags out, the more untenable Washington's position becomes.

Trump will be wondering if a military confrontation with Iran would help or hurt his dwindling popularity at home, making his decision to strike one of the riskiest bets of his presidency

The transfer of sovereign decision-making to external management structures would inevitably cater to the interests of contributors rather than the Sudanese people

The immediate economic impact will be more uncertainty

Iran's vast oil and strategic mineral reserves have moved to the centre of negotiations with the US, which could reshape Trump's calculus

As the US and Iran head to talks in Geneva, competing forces are pulling Trump in opposite directions. There are only two "good" scenarios in front of him, and neither will be easy to achieve.

Decapitation strikes against the country are likely. An invasion is not.

Trump seems to be ending America's longstanding role as crisis manager, preferring to use decisive force to change realities on the ground before negotiating

His meeting with Trump on 11 February, moved up a full week from its original date and just after talks began between Iran and the US, isn't a routine consultation between allies—it's an intervention