BORIS JOHNSON: THE FAVORITE
Boris Johnson, the 55-year-old Conservative member of Parliament former foreign minister, and former mayor of London is the presumed frontrunner to replace outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May, who was forced to step aside after failing to deliver a Brexit deal. Johnson started out as the favourite in a very crowded contest and commanded a huge lead throughout all the rounds of voting while largely avoiding the media. In the fifth and final round, Johnson won 162 votes to runner-up Jeremy Hunt’s 77.
An ardent Brexit backer, Johnson embraced the Leave campaign in February 2016, after a dramatic will-he-or-won’t-he that played out in public. As a popular Conservative politician, Johnson added legitimacy to the campaign, becoming the unofficial leader of “Vote Leave”.
In Theresa May’s cabinet, Johnson held the job as Foreign Secretary, and quit in July 2018 in protest of May’s handling of Britains departure from the EU, which he saw as a “soft Brexit” that would keep the UK closely tied to EU institutions, rather than a more decisive break they preferred. Johnson, as an MP, had voted down the Brexit deal twice but when it came up for a vote the third time at the end of March, though, the deal suddenly didn’t seem as humiliating to Johnson — mainly because May promised to resign if Parliament passed it that time around. The deal didn’t end up passing that time either and May couldn’t break the Brexit deadlock, and she was forced to resign last month.
During his campaign launch to replace Theresa May, Boris insisted that he doesn’t want a no- deal Brexit, but would prepare “vigorously and seriously” to leave without one. And he said the UK will leave the EU on October 31 under his guidance, with or without a deal. Following the launch, Boris was criticized for avoiding media scrutiny by not to take part in interviews or debates. Johnson finally broke his silence and placed himself before the media after three days of front-page headlines about his private life when The Guardian newspaper reported that police were called to the apartment he shares with his partner Carrie Symonds. Neighbors had reported a heated argument; police later stated Johnson and Symonds appeared fine and that no further action was required.
Boris hasn’t always been clear about his the details of his Brexit plan and during the initial stage of the leadership process, he was accused of giving different messages to different Tory MPs, telling Brexiters that a 31 October departure date was definite, but being more circumspect with others. But after embarking on a “media blitz” this week in an attempt to deny accusations that he is hiding, some of his vision became clearer.
Renegotiating May’s Deal
Speaking to BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, in his first televised interview since his campaign kicked off more than four weeks ago; Boris defended his Brexit plan to renegotiate a deal with the EU but admitted he could not rip up the entire withdrawal agreement, something which some Conservative Eurosceptics have said they believed he was planning to do. “Key things that you have got to do is take the bits of the current withdrawal agreement, which is dead, take the bits which are serviceable . . . The stuff about European citizens. They need to be properly protected . . . In an unconditional way in UK law,” he said. However, “Cherrypicking” of the withdrawal agreement’s “best bits” has been repeatedly rejected by the EU.
Throughout a succession of media and public appearances, Johnson struggled to explain in detail how he will get the EU and MPs on side in time to enable the UK to leave with a deal on Halloween. But on a visit to the Wisley Gardens in Surrey, he insisted there was a "new dynamic" in place in Brussels and London since last month's European elections - which saw a surge in support for populist anti-EU parties - and there was "goodwill" on both sides to do a deal.
But the European Commission again reiterated that the Brexit withdrawal agreement will not be negotiated, “full stop”. When asked whether the agreement could be reopened under any circumstances – including to stop a no-deal or prevent a hard border in Ireland, – a spokesperson for the Commission was emphatic: “I can confirm, as has been repeated several times, we will not be renegotiating the withdrawal agreement, full stop,” she told reporters in Brussels. At a meeting of the European Council, Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said all 27 EU leaders were “unanimous” that there should be no renegotiation of the deal, and that “nothing new” came out of discussions on it at the meeting. He had previously said the EU's position was "crystal clear”.
In an interview with Talk Radio, Johnson said he would stick to the October 31 Brexit deadline “come what may, do or die”. In an effort to turn the pressure on his rival, Jeremy Hunt, he tweeted a copy of a letter he had written to Hunt insisting this was the “central question” of the contest. Committing to a deadline that might come too soon to allow a proper negotiation risks triggering a general election and the "political suicide" of the Conservatives, Hunt has said. Responding to his rival's letter, Hunt suggested Johnson was afraid of debating the issue face to face.
The Divorce Bill
Johnson suggested he would be willing to "suspend" the £39bn "divorce bill" the UK has agreed to pay the EU until he had secured commitments on trade and the border. He has said “there should be creative ambiguity” about how and when the previously agreed divorce bill is paid, trying to raise pressure on the EU to grant Britain a new Brexit deal. Pressed over why the EU would agree to this, the former Mayor of London said: "what I bring is the ability to change the equation”. But Detlef Seif, the deputy EU spokesman for Merkel’s conservative parliamentary bloc, said such tactics would be fruitless. “It is foolish to think that on such an important issue as Brexit, the EU would allow itself to be influenced by the refusal of payments,” Seif told Reuters. “That (thinking) is beyond reality.” The EU have also previously made it clear that it will simply refuse to negotiate on any other issue until the UK promises to honour the bill and the other elements of the withdrawal agreement – Northern Ireland backstop included.
The Irish Border
In his BBC interview, Johnson criticised the UK negotiating team for creating the backstop to prevent a hard border in Ireland, saying that in doing so, the UK became "authors of our own incarceration”. He claimed issues including the Irish border would be tackled “on the other side of 31 October during what’s called the implementation period” but then was forced to agree that the UK would not be entitled to such an implementation period without a deal in place on Brexit day. The arrangements for the Irish border are contained within the Withdrawal Agreement and as far as the EU is concerned, these arrangements have already been decided and cannot be changed and they have repeatedly refused to hive off discussion of the backstop until the post-Brexit period. If Johnson is unhappy with those arrangements, then his only option is to walk away with no deal - which case, there’ll be no implementation period after Brexit day.
He also said that there is no one solution to the border checks that a no-deal would necessitate, but rather he said there was "abundant, abundant technical fixes" that could be made to avoid border checks. This line has been used repeatedly by Johnson when discussing the border but when challenged that these “technical fixes” did not exist yet, Johnson replied: "Well, they do actually... in very large measure they do, you have trusted trader schemes, all sorts of schemes that you could put into place.” In response to Jonhson’s claims Detlef Seif, the deputy EU spokesman for Merkel’s conservative parliamentary bloc said such technical fixes were not available now, but added: “If Britain can find a technical solution during the transition period, then please go ahead.”
“GATT 24”
Johnson has made repeated references to “Gatt 24” as a way in which Britain could maintain its status quo of frictionless trading relationship with the continent. “Gatt 24” refers to Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) which is a piece of legislation allows countries to carry on trading under existing tariff arrangements if they are in the process of negotiating a future free trade agreement.
However, he conceded that this plan would require the approval of the rest of the EU and could not happen unilaterally. This was reiterated by International Trade Secretary Liam Fox - a backer of Jeremy Hunt - who wrote in a letter to one of his constituents that Article 24 "would not, by itself, allow the UK to maintain tariff-free trade with the EU in the absence of a negotiated agreement”. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England and numerous independent trade experts also said such an agreement under the terms of the GATT could not work in a no-deal scenario. Johnson’s acceptance that “GATT24” won’t work shows that he thinks he can leave the EU with some kind of renegotiated withdrawal agreement in place, in place of the one Theresa May failed to get through parliament.
JEREMY HUNT: THE UNDERDOG
The current State Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, is the other contender vying to become the next Tory leader and Prime Minister. He, nevertheless, has his work cut out for him since he Johnson came in first place during the fifth round of the Tory leadership contest with a massive difference of 85 votes.
Unlike Johnson, who has been one of the poster children for Brexit since 2016, Hunt has had a much more of a “love-hate” relationship with the issue. First and foremost, he was in favor of remaining in the bloc and during the 2016 Tory leadership race he considered launching a bid based on the promise of a second referendum. In the run-up of the 2016 contest, he also suggested negotiating a deal with the EU before triggering Article 50, as such it can be inferred that he has historically been more in favor of staying in the EU rather than leaving it. It should be stated that he has changed his views since Theresa May’s leadership and has become a “born-again Brexiter” embracing the result of the referendum.
Support for May’s Deal
Following Boris Johnson’s resignation as Foreign Secretary in 2018, Theresa May appointed Hunt as the new holder of the post. Since then, Hunt has been one of May’s biggest ministerial supporters and by late 2018 he continuously backed her controversial Withdrawal Agreement. On December 8, 2018, he infamously wrote an opinion piece for The Sun in which he stated that the Prime Minister’s deal “offers the surest path to Brexit”. He further argued that the deal ensured that Britain would regain control of its borders, laws, and money and simultaneously protected jobs and the integrity of the country.
Needless to say, Hunt’s remainer past and his support for May’s deal will not bode well with Brexiters who most likely won’t trust him to head the withdrawal process. Polls are not favoring Hunt, as a recent one by Comres showed that 61 percent of Conservative councilors intend to vote for Johnson as opposed to the 39 percent who said they would choose Hunt. Johnson is also more popular across the largest regions in the country (South, North, and Midlands), but Hunt fares better in Scotland and Wales (which have smaller Conservative electorates).
Brexit Policies
Hunt has tried to convey himself as the more level headed candidate in the race and has frequently stated (both before and during the competition) that a no-deal scenario would be “political suicide” for his party, as it would force an early election. According to Hunt, the Labor party is in the process of changing its position to become the second referendum party, something that could see it gain substantial popularity. (Quite ironic considering that that was something he wanted back in 2016). He further said that he did not believe that parliament would allow a no-deal to happen, a statement that might harm him rather than help him. It can be said that his campaign has somewhat contradicted that of Boris Johnson which has insisted that the country needs to be out of the block by October 31, deal or no deal. Hunt also argued that a no-deal Brexit would be bad for the UK’s businesses, both big and small. During the June 18 debate, Hunt posed Johnson this question: "what would you say to a sheep farmer in Shropshire that I met whose business would be destroyed by 40 percent tariffs? He would say, you got your dream of getting into No 10, but what about my dream to have a family business?”
On the question of how he would restart the negotiating process, Hunt opted for a new cross-party negotiating team which would involve the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the European Research Group (a hardline Brexit group which involves Tory MPs such as Jacob Rees-Mogg) and Tories from Scotland and Wales, that way he could potentially ensure that any deal he negotiates can easily gain a majority in parliament. Unlike May, he said that he would not invite the Labor party to the table because he doesn’t think that the main opposition party can take part in the talks with good faith.
Both Hunt and Johnson have stated that their negotiated deals would not involve the Irish backstop; Hunt actually went on record to criticize Theresa May’s Ireland approach: “What Theresa May tried to do was a deal involving the backstop, I was in cabinet at the time and I supported her loyally, but I never thought that was the right approach”. To solve the controversial Irish border issue, Hunt suggested a “technology-led solution” as he thinks that big border checks as we know them will cease to exist within the next decade and most of the said processes will be done online. Consequently, embracing these new technological advances will ensure that the Irish border will remain open.
Hunt did not rule out a no-deal entirely but insisted that he would only pursue such a prospect as a last resort if no viable deal is set in sight and would do so with a “heavy heart” to avoid no Brexit at all.
The Underdog Hunting the Favorite
All leadership votes and most polls indicate that Hunt is the clear underdog in the competition and the fact that only Conservative members are voting in the last round does not help Hunt. A recent article published by the Associated Press (AP) cited a study which showed that 70 percent of Conservative members are men, half are over 55, 86% are middle class or above and 97% are white. More importantly, most Tory members are highly Euroskeptic and want to leave the bloc no matter the consequences. As such, someone like Johnson who has shown to be an zealous Brexiter from the start and has on more than one occasion insisted that the country should leave on October 31 whatever the scenario will probably resonate more with most Conservative party members. As previously stated, most Euroskeptic Tory members will probably not trust Hunt to deliver the Brexit they seek given his previous remainer attitude and his support for May’s deal. Despite all such challenges, Hunt has yet to back down from the race and is determined to become the next occupant of 10 Downing Street.
