Since Theresa May announced that she will stand down as prime minister on June 7, Conservative MPS have been throwing their hats into the ring to become the next party leader. As many as 15 potential candidates are eyeing their chances in what is likely to be the most crowded Tory leadership battle in decades. After almost 3 years of Brexit chaos, deep divisions within the party and the nation over Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, both camps of the party’s war over the EU see this leadership election as an existential battle that has been underway on the sidelines for months.
Nominations will close the week beginning June 10th, followed by several rounds of voting among MPs. Under the party’s rules, Tory MPs - who currently number 313 - select two candidates to go through to a runoff in which around 120,000 Conservative party members who will vote on who they want to be leader. This process will last until the end of the month and the result of their vote will be announced before parliament rises for summer. To guarantee a place at the final ballot, candidates need at least 105 Conservative MPs behind them. The conventional wisdom is that a Brexiteer will win the contest as that would seem to reflect the preferences of the party members who are more Eurosceptic than the average conservative voter. But there are deep concerns among more centrist Conservatives that a Brexit pro-no deal hardliner is on the brink of becoming prime minister.
THE LEADING CONTENDERS
Boris Johnson - 18 MPs in support
As one of the biggest names in British politics, former foreign secretary Boris Johnson is the man to beat. He was a figurehead of the campaign to leave the European Union (who famously wrote a secret op-ed column in support of remaining in the EU, just two days before he came out as a Brexiteer) and has one of the most outspoken critics of Theresa May’s Brexit plan, regularly undermining her efforts to sell her deal to Parliament. He resigned from his position as foreign secretary in May’s cabinet in 2018 in protest for her withdrawal strategy and has consistently pushed for a hard split from the EU. He rejected warnings about the impact of a no deal Brexit, insisting: "Whatever the doomsters may say ... there will be no shortage of Mars bars, we will still have potable drinking water in Britain. The planes will fly, the ferries will ply."
Johnson first gained notoriety for his bombastic displays during his eight years as Mayor of London, a traditionally Labour city. But when he returned to parliament and during the EU referendum, he became a far more divisive figure. His 2 years as foreign secretary - memorable for his diplomatic gaffes - did his reputation no favors. Despite this, Johnson’s popularity is undimmed among the conservatives party members (in a recent YouGov poll, 39% of party members ranked him their first choice) who have the final vote on who becomes the party leader.
A Politico poll suggested “that of six leading Tory figures, all except Boris would lose the party votes compared with the 2017 election if they became leader”, says Politico’s Jack Blanchard. The poll shows that Johnson “is by far the best-placed candidate to stem the tide of Tory voters planning to opt for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party [last] week’s European elections”, Blanshard adds.
However, Johnson has fewer fans in Parliament and so his main challenge will be to convince enough MPs to vote for him to get on to the ballot for party members. A “Stop Boris” movement has been underway among some centrist MPs, from members of the cabinet to backbenchers. The "One Nation Caucus" of moderate Tory MPs are trying to move the party towards the center-ground and will "work to stop any leadership candidate who endorses a 'Nigel Farage No-Deal Brexit,'" sources told the Mail newspaper.
Dominic Raab - 17 MPs in support
Dominic Raab has long been seen as a contender to replace Theresa May by the Brexit-supporting wing of the Conservative party. The staunch Brexiteer, who few outside of Westminster had heard of before taking the role of Brexit secretary in the summer of 2018, has been calling to leave the EU long before the referendum. Raab resigned himself from the position four months into the job arguing that May’s deal did not amount to a proper departure from the EU. Now one of the Conservative’s loudest critics among Brexiteers, Raab has said that he would be prepared to leave the EU without a deal, saying the UK must “calmly demonstrate unflinching resolve to leave in October - at the latest.” He has also blasted those who want a second referendum.
He said: "If there's an attempt to reverse the referendum, stop Brexit altogether I think that would cut across not only the democratic mandate, the biggest in history we had.”
Michael Gove - 17 MPs in support
Environment secretary Michael Gove is an experienced minister having previously served as justice secretary and education secretary, and is often seen as a “safe pair of hands.”
Since betraying Boris Johnson in the previous leadership contest by withdrawing his support on the morning Johson was due to declare and throwing his hat in the ring instead, Gove has been working on resuscitating trust among his colleagues.
Before the 2016 referendum, he campaigned for Britain’s exit, and he largely backed the Prime Minister’s strategy during her time in office. He was vocal of his support for May and urged others within his party to support her deal in several iterations. He has said that he would run as a “unity candidate”, suggesting he would push first and foremost for a deal.
Jeremy Hunt - 10 MPs in support
Jeremy Hunt was the longest-serving Health Secretary in British history before replacing Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary in July 2018. He left the Department of Health after securing a £20bn funding increase for the NHS, but angered junior doctors after changing their contracts so they wouldn't receive extra pay for the many shifts they work, making him unpopular with many who work in or reply on the state-run, financially stretched NHS.
Like Theresa May, Hunt voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum but now says he backs Brexit and has urged the Conservative membership to set aside their differences over Brexit and unite against a common foe - the EU. He has warned that his party will be committing "political suicide" if it tries to push through a no-deal Brexit as it would result in a general election, which could see Labour take power.
Sajid Javid - 7 MPs in support
Home Secretary Sajid Javid became the first person to hold the position from an ethnic minority when he was appointed in April 2018. The son of a Pakistani bus driver from Rochdale, he was a managing director at Deutsche Bank before becoming an MP in 2010. He has served in a number of cabinet roles and scores consistently well in polls of party members. Javid has been positioning himself for a potential leadership role since early this year, making waves when he revoked the citizenship of “ISIS bride” Shamima Begum.
He backed remain in the referendum but like May and Hunt, he has since positioned himself as a firm leaver.
Andrea Leadsom - 2 MPs in support
A prominent Brexiteer, the former Commons leader decisively quit the cabinet as May tried to win last gasp support for her withdrawal bill saying she no longer believed the government’s approach would deliver Brexit. She was the last candidate standing against Theresa May in the 2016 leadership bid but was forced to the race after widely criticized comments about rival Theresa May. She has said that she is prepared to leave the EU without a deal. She said: “In order to succeed in a negotiation you have to be prepared to leave without a deal, but I have a three-point plan for Brexit”.
LEADERSHIP CONTENDERS CLASH OVER NO-DEAL
Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party’s solid victory in the European Elections has lit a fire under the Conservative leadership race after they suffered one of the worst defeats in their history, leaving candidates vying to show how willing they are to leave the European Union without a deal. Voters sent a clear message to the Conservatives, who won just 9.1% of the vote, coming in at fifth place behind the Green Party. Boris Johnson’s chances and those of other hard-line Brexiters are likely to be boosted by the fact a Brexit deal remains unresolved, allowing them to resurrect arguments for a renegotiation and, if that cannot be achieved, a so-called “managed no-deal”, which is overwhelmingly backed by Tory members who will select the new leader. According to a poll by YouGov, two-thirds of the 120,000 Conservative party members want a no-deal Brexit.
But the Conservative leader contenders are clashing over support for no-deal Brexit. The first shots fired in the Tory contest was the launch of the counter-initiative “Stop Boris’ campaign which was founded by Work & Pensions secretary Amber Rudd and former education secretary Nicky Morgan. The 60-member group is being interpreted as a warning to Boris and other leadership front runners who have said they would back a no-deal Brexit. Sir Nicholas Soames, who is part of the group, told Sky News: "I don't think we will want to vote for anyone who is going to propagate a no-deal situation.”
In a sign of growing animosity in the leadership race, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, International Development Secretary Rory Stewart and Justice Secretary David Gauke have torn into the hardline approach being pursued by Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey for the UK to leave on October 31, with or without a deal.
Stewart echoed the views of many moderate Tory MPs when he said he would find it "very difficult" to stay in the Conservative party if its new leader endorsed leaving the EU without a deal, and said implementing such an outcome could ultimately lead to a Labour government.
Hunt has stressed that pursuing no deal risks triggering a general election because it would be torpedoed in Parliament and that the resulting verdict from voters would be “absolutely catastrophic” for the Tories. He branded a policy of seeking crash out of the European Union without a deal as “political suicide” and called for a “statesmanlike and robust” approach to trying to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, even though Brussels has repeatedly ruled this out.
A majority of members of Parliament are against no-deal (the split was 160 MPs vs 400 in a vote on March 27) but there’s not a clear mechanism for them to prevent it happening, according to the Institute for Government. The new leader could ignore MPs and press ahead with no deal as the legal default position but some MPs are threatening to vote against the Government in a confidence motion if the Prime Minister spearheads a no-deal Brexit and Parliament is sidelined to avoid leaving the EU without an agreement. Chancellor Philip Hammond announced his plans to join the revolt saying that any new leader who tries to implement a no deal Brexit would face the prospect of having to “leave office.”
