Iraqi Kurdistan Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani (L) and Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu shake hands on his arrival in Ankara in May 2012. Source: ADEM ALTAN/AFP/GettyImages[/caption]
My career as a diplomatic reporter began just a couple of months before the start of the First Gulf War. It was then that the sentence “maintaining the territorial integrity of Iraq” became embedded in every one of my articles, reflecting Turkey’s fears over Iraq’s potential disintegration.
Turkey’s concerns stemmed from developments in Iraq’s Kurdish north. Fearing massacre at home, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Kurds were fleeing across the border into Turkey. Unable to cope with the mass influx, Turkey had given its consent to a no-fly zone in northern Iraq, patrolled by US, British and French planes stationed on Turkish territory. The Iraqis withdrew from the Kurdish region, freeing the Kurds to carve out a semi-autonomous region.
This new reality across the border presented Turkey with a fresh dilemma. Kurdish self-governance could ultimately lead to regional autonomy, and even full independence. This was a highly undesirable outcome for Ankara, given the possible repercussions Iraqi Kurdish self-determination could have for Turkey’s own Kurdish problem.
The Turkish government’s fight against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the Turkish–Kurdish rebel group, took on another dimension as PKK militants found safe haven in northern Iraq, launching hit-and-run attacks from across the border.
For a long time, Turkey had difficulty accepting that a Kurdish entity was being formed along its borders. The Turkish government therefore made it very clear to the Kurds in Iraq, as well as the international community, that “maintaining the territorial integrity of Iraq” was a red line for Ankara. These warnings were principally targeted at the United States, as Americans were seen to be the mentors of Iraq’s Kurds in self-governance.
Turkey became even more aggravated after the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Every administrative gain acquired by the Iraqi Kurds deepened Turkey’s suspicions over their ambitions for full independence. Washington backed the Kurds despite Turkish warnings that Kurdish gains could lead to the disintegration of Iraq. Meanwhile, Turkey’s bilateral ties with the Iraqi Kurds saw countless ups and downs. Ankara accused the Kurdish authorities of turning a blind eye to the PKK presence, further straining relations and even resulting in Turkish cross border operations into Iraq.
This thorny relationship took a dramatic turn in the mid-2000s, as the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey decided to endorse an engagement policy rather than one of confrontation. The previously taboo word “Kurdistan” has since entered Turkish official rhetoric. Turkey came to the realization that it would have to live reasonably amiably with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on its doorstep. Good relations with the KRG could also help limit PKK operations.
There were other added bonuses to friendly relations with the KRG. The relative stability enjoyed in Iraq’s north meant the region provided a natural market for Turkey. A tremendous economic boom has taken place in northern Iraq in a short space of time. In 2011, a Turkish diplomat told me that “there is not one single province in Turkey that does not export to northern Iraq.”
Then, a relatively new variable entered the equation: the discovery that northern Iraq sits on one of the largest unexplored oil and gas reserves in the world. This revelation is fast becoming a game changer in relations between Turkey and Iraq. For a while now, the KRG has been pursuing plans to sell its oil and gas without Baghdad’s permission. Two years ago, Turkey’s initial reaction to this act of Iraqi–Kurdish autonomy, was that it crossed Turkey’s red line of “territorial integrity.” Yet in a surprising twist, Turkey then proceeded to cross its own red line. Turkey’s growing energy needs meant it accepted an invitation from the KRG to invest in the sector, at the risk of antagonizing Baghdad.
Last December, a plane carrying the Turkish energy minister to Iraqi Kurdistan for an energy conference in Erbil made a last-minute u-turn in midair as the Iraq central government prevented the aircraft from entering Iraqi airspace. Just before this incident, I attended a panel discussion in Istanbul on the Kurdistan energy issue. Former US Ambassador James Jeffrey and the KRG’s energy minister were among the speakers. I could hardly believe what I heard.
The former US envoy criticized the increased cooperation between Turkey and the KRG, warning that there could be negative consequences to a deal in the absence of approval from Baghdad. It was interesting to hear a former US official express worry over steps taken by Turkey that could potentially divide Iraq. Even more intriguing was the Iraqi Kurdish official’s rebuff in defense of Turkey: “It is unfair to think that Turkey wants the disintegration of Iraq.”
A high-ranking KRG official later told me in Erbil, “The US tells us, ‘It’s okay for the two of you to cooperate, but don’t go too far.’” This message became official when the US envoy to Ankara, Francis Ricciardone, publicly stated that Washington seriously warned Ankara, Baghdad and Erbil not to take steps that would divide Iraq. Turkish officials responded by publicly announcing that Washington should not expect Turkey to stand by and watch as the world’s major energy giants rush in to Iraqi Kurdistan.
Having exited Iraq, Washington now wants to leave the country in one piece, but Turkey not wish to see the disintegration of Iraq either, since that would only benefit Iran. Turkey will forever regret that oil-rich Mosul fell outside the Republic’s borders when formed from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire. Turks do not want to be latecomers to Iraqi Kurdistan’s booming energy sector. “An opportunity like this has not come to Turkey since Ottoman times. Do you recall how we cried over Mosul for years? That’s how we will cry if we miss that opportunity,” confided Mehmet Sepil, president of Genel Energy, the largest independent British-Turkish energy company active in Iraqi Kurdistan today.
