Infographics

US-Iran conflict: from nuclear diplomacy to all-out war

Diana Estefanía Rubio

US-Iran conflict: from nuclear diplomacy to all-out war

Al Majalla - London
last update on

The nuclear deal signed by Iran and world powers on 14 July 2015 did not end decades of hostility between Tehran and Washington. It offered a diplomatic pause in a deeper struggle over influence, security and the balance of power in the Middle East. The roots of that hostility date back to 1953, when the CIA helped overthrow Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh after he nationalised the oil industry, paving the way for the Shah's return. In 1979, the Islamic Revolution toppled the Shah, and Iranian students seized the US Embassy in Tehran, holding American diplomats hostage for 444 days and ushering in a lasting period of hostility.

On 14 July 2015, US President Barack Obama secured the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear activities and accept stringent international monitoring in exchange for sanctions relief. But the deal left Iran's ballistic missile programme, regional influence and support for armed groups unaddressed, fuelling subsequent US and Israeli opposition.

On 8 May 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement and launched a "maximum pressure" campaign to force Tehran into a broader deal covering its nuclear and missile programmes and regional activities. Iran responded by breaching nuclear restrictions, increasing uranium enrichment and expanding its regional leverage. In April 2019, Washington designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a Foreign Terrorist Organisation.

The confrontation soon extended beyond sanctions. In January 2020, the United States killed Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Quds Force and a key architect of Iran's regional network, in a drone strike in Baghdad. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Iraqi bases hosting US forces. Tehran nevertheless maintained its reliance on allied armed groups across the region to exert pressure without repeatedly engaging in direct confrontation.

Efforts to revive the nuclear deal resumed under President Joe Biden in 2021 but stalled over disagreements on commitments, Iran's nuclear advances and regional issues. The Gaza war in October 2023 opened another front, drawing Iran-backed groups into confrontations across Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Meanwhile, tensions between Israel and Iran escalated into direct exchanges of attacks in 2024.

Russian vessels crossing the Caspian Sea, trucks from Central Asia and cargo aircraft from China helped Iran circumvent the US naval blockade

Operation Midnight Hammer

In June 2025, Israeli and US strikes hit Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan. Beyond the physical damage, the attacks affected the International Atomic Energy Agency's ability to monitor Iran's nuclear activities and verify its compliance with safeguards obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The large-scale US-Israeli offensive launched on 28 February 2026 expanded the target list beyond nuclear and military installations to Iran's industrial and logistical infrastructure. Strikes hit naval bases, warships, missile production and launch sites, ammunition depots and drone-related facilities. Attacks also targeted major industrial plants, including Mobarakeh and Khuzestan steel companies, bridges, pharmaceutical facilities, roads, tunnels, railway lines and communications infrastructure. Among the targets was the strategic B1 bridge in Karaj, alongside facilities linked to water and electricity supplies. Tehran retaliated against Israel and targets across the region, while closing the Strait of Hormuz and turning a vital global energy and trade route into a pressure tool.

As diplomatic efforts faltered, Washington extended its campaign to Iran's economy. On 13 April 2026, it imposed a naval blockade on vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Suspended in June, the blockade resumed on 14 July. US Central Command claimed it had prevented Iran from exporting more than $25bn in crude oil, striking a major source of state revenue and military financing.

Yet Iran found ways around the blockade through alternative supply routes. Investigations revealed that Iran continued importing military equipment and dual-use materials through covert networks involving Russian vessels crossing the Caspian Sea, trucks from Central Asia and cargo aircraft from China.

On 7 November, US CENTCOM announced Task Force Iron Gate to extend pressure beyond the sea to Iran's land borders and the Caspian Sea

Iron Gate task force

On 7 November, US CENTCOM announced Task Force Iron Gate to extend pressure beyond the sea to Iran's land borders and the Caspian Sea. The task force, comprising around 20 military and civilian personnel and based in Tampa, Florida, will coordinate with US agencies to disrupt transfers of advanced weapons, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials and revenue Washington describes as illicit. Its aim is to close the routes Iran uses to circumvent maritime restrictions and rebuild its military capabilities.

Iron Gate's effectiveness will depend on cooperation with neighbouring countries and the ability to monitor regional trade routes. The Caspian Sea is bordered by five countries, limiting Washington's ability to police its waters directly. Nor does a coordinating task force amount to an actual closure of Iran's land borders. While lost oil revenues point to the blockade's economic impact, continued smuggling shows that Tehran can still find alternative supply routes, albeit at greater cost and risk.

font change

Related topics US-Iran war Iran nuclear program American foreign policy Donald Trump
Editor's Pick