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Israeli politicians battle for 61 Knesset seats

Diana Estefanía Rubio

Political landscape after Israeli election

Al Majalla - London

last update on 30 Oct 2026

Israel’s 27 October election has left the battle for power unresolved, despite progress in the vote count and a clearer picture of the distribution of seats. Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc lacks the majority needed to form a government, while the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot cannot secure one without reaching understandings with Arab parties or winning support from other political forces. With an alternative coalition difficult to assemble and Netanyahu seeking to broaden his support, attention is turning to the negotiations ahead, in which Arab lawmakers could play a decisive role in determining the next government.

Around 5.69 million people voted in the Israeli election, putting turnout at 77.7%, up 7.1 percentage points from the 2022 election and the highest level since 1999, according to published reports. Arab voter participation also rose sharply, reaching around 80%, according to Israel’s Channel 12. The results have meanwhile put Netanyahu’s bloc ahead of expectations set by pre-election polls.

With most votes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, compared with 48 for the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot. The two Arab lists, the Joint List and Ra’am, have secured a combined 19 seats, their strongest representation to date. A government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers to command a Knesset majority. Netanyahu’s bloc has therefore lost 15 seats compared with its representation in the outgoing Knesset, while the opposing bloc has failed to secure a majority of its own.

The count and verification process are still underway, including the counting of “double-envelope” ballots cast by soldiers, prisoners, diplomats, and voters unable to vote at their regular polling stations. The final official results are expected to be published by 4 November, in line with the legal timetable.

Neither bloc has a majority. Can Arab parties tip the balance of power?

Unsubstantiated claims

Likud accused Arab parties of illegally influencing the election, alleging bribery, threats and vote manipulation, and calling for an investigation into what it described as election theft. Allegations of foreign interference also centred on claims of funding for the United Arab List (Ra'am). However, no evidence substantiating these allegations on a broad scale has been made public. Israeli police said they had no investigative or intelligence evidence to support Likud's claims, although investigations into specific allegations are ongoing.

Netanyahu's bloc needs eight additional seats to reach a majority. He may seek support from lawmakers outside his bloc or attempt to form a unity government with Eisenkot. But such an arrangement would face a significant trust deficit, with a clear precedent: in April 2020, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz agreed to share the premiership on a rotation basis, but their partnership collapsed months later without the agreed transfer of power to Gantz. That experience raises questions about whether a new agreement could endure, particularly without sufficient political guarantees. With coalition-building likely to prove difficult, the possibility of failed negotiations and another election remains.

The results also leave open the possibility of an alternative government. Eisenkot's bloc and the Arab parties together hold 67 seats, more than the 61 required for a parliamentary majority. Against this backdrop, Ahmad Tibi, leader of the Arab Movement for Change, said he had received calls from Eisenkot's camp and indicated that the Joint List was prepared to help form a government to end Netanyahu's rule if Eisenkot chose to pursue that path. But the arithmetic does not amount to a ready-made political agreement, given divisions within the opposition over cooperation with Arab lists. There is a precedent: in 2021, Ra'am helped support the government formed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with its four seats contributing to the narrow majority of 61 lawmakers.

Once the official results are announced, President Isaac Herzog will consult the parties before assigning the task of forming a government to the lawmaker he considers best placed to do so. The designated candidate normally has 28 days, with a possible extension of up to 14 days. If no coalition can be formed, further procedures may follow, potentially leading to another election if the political deadlock persists.

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