How melting Himalayan glaciers will impact the world

The famous mountain range feeds the great Asian rivers like the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra, upon which almost two billion depend. Problems here will ripple across the Arab world

The Indian Himalayas are seen from a flight to Srinagar on 22 May 2023.
Sebastien BERGER / AFP
The Indian Himalayas are seen from a flight to Srinagar on 22 May 2023.

How melting Himalayan glaciers will impact the world

When an enormous mass of rock and ice broke away from Mount Langtang Lirung on the border between Nepal and Tibet on 26 August, it unleashed a torrent of water and debris that travelled nearly 100km through mountainous valleys, causing widespread destruction to villages, infrastructure, and the port of Gyirong. The impact generated seismic energy equivalent to a magnitude 5.2 earthquake. Thousands were killed.

The Himalayas have witnessed similar scenes before. In 2021, in the Chamoli region of India, 27 million cubic metres of rock and ice collapsed from Mount Ronti, killing hundreds and destroying hydroelectric facilities. Such events show how rising global temperatures are affecting the stability of mountain slopes in a geologically active region such as the Himalayas, where the terrain is also shaped by weather, erosion, gravity, and tectonic movements.

Global warming may not be the sole cause, but it is weakening slopes as glaciers retreat and ice melts within rock fissures and frozen ground, increasing the risk that natural landslides could develop into much larger disasters. Stretching nearly 2,500km, the Himalayas contain the highest peaks on Earth, including Mount Everest, at 8,849m above sea level.

‘The third pole’

The famous mountain range contains tens of thousands of glaciers and forms an essential part of what is known as the ‘third pole’ since it holds the largest concentration of land ice outside the Arctic and Antarctic. The Himalayas are sometimes called ‘Asia’s water towers’ because the snowfields and glaciers serve as an immense natural reservoir, feeding the continent’s most important rivers like the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra, sustaining communities thousands of kilometres away with drinking water, agricultural irrigation, and electricity generation.

The Himalayan glacial system is therefore important for almost two billion people, but this natural reservoir is increasingly vulnerable to changes in the global climate. Glaciers around the world are losing mass as temperatures rise. Average annual ice loss hit 273 billion tonnes between 2000-23. The consequences are felt far beyond the mountains. Melting ice adds water to oceans, raising sea levels and affecting seasonal water supplies, ecosystems, and the economies that depend on it.

A study published in Climate and Atmospheric Science in July 2024 documented significant changes in the third pole’s climate over recent decades. Drawing on data from 1980-2020, the researchers examined temperature, precipitation, and glacier mass using databases, satellite observations, and climate models. They found a marked rise in temperatures, particularly in the western Himalayas, creating conditions conducive to the loss of snow and ice.

AFP
The Indian Himalayas are seen from a flight to Srinagar on 22 May 2023.

The findings were in line with the UN Environment Programme's 2022 report titled Scientific Assessment of the Third Pole Environment, which noted that temperatures across the Himalayas rose by around 0.3°C per decade between 1960 and 2018, nearly twice the global average. Warming was particularly pronounced during winter.

What holds steep mountain slopes together? At high elevations, rock does not always form a single, solid mass; it is often fractured by cracks and faults through which water and snow penetrate. Above the permanent snowline (which in the Himalayas generally lies between 4,500 and 5,700 metres, depending on location and local conditions), ice can remain trapped within or around rock formations for many years.

When water seeps into these cracks and freezes, it expands, exerting pressure on the surrounding rock. Repeated cycles of freezing and thawing gradually widen the fractures and break the rock apart through a process known as freeze-thaw weathering, or frost-shattering. At the same time, ice (within rock fissures) and permafrost can act as a natural binding agent, helping to hold sections of slope in place. Changes in the temperature and condition of this ice therefore affect the stability of the rock.

The Himalayas illustrate how global warming can turn a local environmental problem into a global challenge to water supplies, food security, and economic stability

When temperatures remain elevated for a prolonged period, some of the ice that once helped secure the rock melts, weakening cohesion as gravity continues to pull it down. Once that downward force exceeds the slope's ability to resist it, large masses of rock and ice break loose, triggering a landslide or avalanche or rock and ice. The biggest involve millions of cubic metres of material.

Natural disasters usually stem from several interacting factors, including the geology of the slope, existing faults, cycles of freezing and thawing, glacial retreat, the presence of water, and other climatic or geological disturbances. Warming can shift the balance among these forces, leaving once-stable slopes increasingly vulnerable to collapse, which can produce a mass of water, rock, soil, and ice that grows in size and momentum as it moves. The debris flow can set off a succession of hazards that are difficult to contain once the process is under way.

Glacial melting presents another paradox. During the early stages of accelerated melting, more water flows from the mountains into the rivers. As ice disappears faster than new ice forms, river basins get closer to 'peak water' (the point at which run-off from melting glaciers reaches its maximum level before declining as the ice reserves themselves diminish). Beyond this' peak water' threshold, glaciers contribute progressively less water to rivers, the flow of which then becomes increasingly dependent on rainfall, snowfall, groundwater, and the effects of evaporation.

Reuters
A drone view of firefighters conducting search and rescue operations at a damaged road leading to Gyirong Port after a mudslide, in Gyirong county, Shigatse, Tibet Autonomous Region, China on 28 August 2026.

A region may therefore experience a period of increased water availability and flooding, followed by growing shortages of a resource on which it has historically depended. Estimates suggest that most river basins across the Hindu Kush Himalaya region could reach peak water in the next 25 years. The implications are considerable for communities downstream, who currently perceive an abundance of water.

Rivers originating in the region, or fed by its snow and ice, cross vast territories inhabited by hundreds of millions of people. Any substantial change in the volume or seasonal timing of their flow could affect agriculture, energy production, dam management, drinking water supplies, and food security.

In a report published this year, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMD) assessed changes in glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya between 1990 and 2020. Its findings show a decline of 12% in glacial area and substantial losses in ice reserves, with the rate of ice loss accelerating markedly since 2000.

As glaciers melt, water collects in depressions, with sediment, rock and ice acting as natural barriers. If one gives way, it can cause a flash flood

Regional warming impact

The Paris Agreement on climate change seeks to limit the rise in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but the effects of warming vary across the planet. In the Himalayas, a study published by the ICIMOD in 2019 showed that an increase of 1.5°C could translate into regional warming of 2.1°C, which would lead to the loss of one-third of the region's glaciers. A rise of 5°C, meanwhile, would mean the Himalayas losing around 65% of its ice in the next 75 years, depleting a vast natural water reserve on which two billion people depend.

Alongside changes in river flows, the loss of glacial ice can also lead to the formation of new glacial lakes, or the expansion of existing ones. As glaciers retreat, meltwater collects in depressions, with sediment, rock and ice acting as natural barriers that sometimes form unstable dams. If one suddenly gives way, it can release enormous volumes of water that then surges down the valley. These floodwaters carry rocks, mud, trees, and debris for miles, damaging homes, roads, bridges, dams, and energy facilities.

The Himalayas may seem geographically remote from the Arab world, but the global economy and international food and energy networks make distance less of a barrier to the spread of economic shocks. Climate disruption in a region whose rivers sustain hundreds of millions of people and support extensive agricultural production can lead to shortages of crops, rising prices, and greater competition for resources. For countries heavily dependent on food imports, the impact is profound.

 ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP
An aerial view of date palm plantations along the banks of the Nile River near the city of Karima, in Sudan's Northern State, 2023.

A 2021 report by the UK's government-funded Met Office (short for 'Meteorological') on climate risks in the Middle East and North Africa indicated that the region's dependence on food imports was likely to increase as climate change placed growing pressure on agricultural production, both locally and globally. Importing countries would consequently become more vulnerable to external shocks in grain and essential commodity markets, particularly when production losses occur, trade is disrupted, or energy and transport costs rise.

Rising food prices are felt throughout societies, but they have more of an impact on low-income families, and in the Arab world, as elsewhere, food accounts for a portion of household expenditure. A study published in the Journal of Agriculture and Food Research in 2025 highlighted the vulnerability of the Middle East and North Africa to rising temperatures. It found an association between a 1°C increase in temperature and a decline in food availability of 8.2 kilocalories per person per day.

Countries differ considerably in their ability to withstand such pressures. Wealthier states can diversify their source of food imports and absorb higher prices. Others face a greater risk of food shortages and rising costs, and the consequences of glacial retreat in the Himalayas reach well beyond Asia. The Himalayas illustrate how global warming can turn a local environmental problem into a global challenge to water supplies, food security, economic stability, and communities halfway around the world.

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