The world we knew is slipping away

A turbulent Red Sea

Across the Red Sea, Houthi attacks and military adventurism are intensifying. Their effects are no longer confined to the western coast; they now extend to energy markets and supply chains. The fallout from Bab Al Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz is felt in the pockets and equipment of millions around the world. Even a locally made drone can have consequences far beyond its physical range.

In North Africa and the Sahel, Libya's continuing impasse and Algeria's growing air deployment in Niger are part of a landscape in which armed insurgencies and coups overlap with rivalry among regional and foreign powers. Fuelled by major powers' appetite for backing local authorities, this widening instability shows how turmoil in neighbouring states can push countries towards intervention and coups in a broader geopolitical contest.

In Mesopotamia, the completion of the US military withdrawal from Iraq at the end of September reopens the question of sovereignty. Twenty-three years have passed since the 2003 invasion. US forces withdrew in 2011, only to return in 2014 to fight the Islamic State (IS). Washington now declares its mission complete, while Baghdad faces the more difficult task of ensuring that arms remain solely under state control. Pro-Iranian political forces celebrate the American withdrawal, while factions backed by Tehran refuse to surrender their arms, leaving Iraqis questioning how independent their country is and whether their state can exercise sovereignty.

In the Levant, Syria remains relatively sheltered from the upheaval around it, though occasional explosions are a reminder of the challenges still ahead. Lebanon, meanwhile, remains divided and on edge: Gaza and the West Bank face growing Israeli ambitions as elections approach at the end of the month. Three years after October 7, facts imposed by force continue to multiply, while the prospects for a political settlement grow ever more distant.

Across the Mediterranean, Europe is living with the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, Russian threats and Iranian infiltration. European governments accuse Moscow of involvement in strikes and drone attacks. European security concerns are mounting over Iranian plots and over how firmly US security guarantees would hold when tested by Moscow and Tehran. At home, the nationalist and far right continue to gain ground.

The world is changing from within as well, with societal shifts reshaping alliances and commitments. In South America, a rightward wave in several countries is redrawing the political map. America's backyard has become its front yard, and a priority for Trump. Regimes are changing, some are being besieged, and others are yielding. Military strikes impose some of these changes; others come through elections.

Shifting camps and realignments

Old labels no longer explain the alignments taking shape. The "West" does not account for every position, just as Russia and China do not form a single "Eastern" bloc. Nor is the "Global South" a cohesive camp. A country may depend on Washington for its defence, turn to Beijing for trade and investment, and still keep channels open with Moscow. Two regional powers may stand together in one crisis and find themselves on opposing sides in another. A local actor, meanwhile, can upset its backer's calculations, exceed the limits set for it, or pull that backer into confrontation on its own timetable.

Those capable of fuelling escalation are multiplying, while the power to stop it is increasingly fragmented. The danger is that we become accustomed to such a world. That we grow addicted to the next surprise, while wounds go unhealed, illnesses go untreated, victims remain defenceless, and unresolved crises are left open.

Who, then, can keep the world in check? No single power can control all these arenas. Each day brings another surprise. The greater danger is that war comes to be seen as the natural state of this new era. The world we once knew how to read is slipping away, and we do not know what will take its place.