The rapid advances made by Houthi rebels in Yemen, where they have strengthened their ability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, could complicate US President Donald Trump’s attempts to wage economic warfare against Iran.
Having exhausted many of America’s military options during more than six months of fighting, Trump has turned to economic warfare instead, imposing what he called 'Economic D-Day' sanctions. The aim was to inflict further damage on Iran’s already battered economy to force it to come to the negotiating table. To be sure, Iran's economy is struggling: inflation is around 65%, the rial is weakened, and restrictions on oil exports have limited its access to foreign currency.
Yet, despite the economic hardship, Iran has managed to maintain its campaign of disrupting shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway in the Gulf, which, despite efforts by the US military to escort oil tankers through the Strait, still remains closed to most commercial traffic—a situation that is already having a negative impact on the global economy.
And now, with Houthi rebels making sweeping advances along Yemen's Red Sea coast, a key ally of Iran could hold another leverage card over Trump's head if they are able to disrupt maritime shipping there as well.
Carefully coordinated plan
All the indications suggest that the Houthi offensive in Yemen is part of a carefully coordinated plan by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to disrupt shipping simultaneously through two of the Middle East’s key shipping lanes, thereby causing further disruption to the global economy.
After Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula became an increasingly important lifeline for the global economy—one that Iran has repeatedly threatened to strike. The Houthis' ability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea could profoundly affect future oil shipments from the region, with major implications for the global economy.
