What the Makkah Agreement means for Syria

The new military pact among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye could potentially create a regional environment favourable to Damascus

What the Makkah Agreement means for Syria

The Makkah Mutual Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan is more than a new military accord among three major states. It points to a broader reshaping of the region’s security landscape after the wars and upheavals of recent years. For the “new Syria”, it carries particular significance. All three signatories are allies of Damascus, while its most prominent regional adversaries remain outside the agreement.

The agreement’s name also carries significance. Across the Islamic world, Makkah is considered the holiest city for Muslims. And before the birth of Islam, the Quraysh tribe in Makkah established Ilaf—vital trade agreements and safe-passage pacts, which helped turn the city into a cosmopolitan commercial and economic hub.

The crux of the alliance is clear: an armed attack on any one of the three states is to be regarded as an attack on them all. Saudi Arabia brings its Arab and Islamic standing, economic weight, and political influence; Türkiye, its large army, NATO membership, and defence industries; and Pakistan, its armed forces, nuclear capabilities, longstanding Saudi ties, and important channels to both Washington and Beijing.

The agreement has come alongside another Saudi initiative of comparable importance. Riyadh hosted military representatives from 43 countries, together with the European Union, to discuss the creation of a multinational defensive maritime alliance. Many states declared their support for the project, which has begun to move from concept to institution, with a commander appointed and work underway to complete its command, staff and coordination structures.

Taken together, these steps reveal the outlines of a broader security vision based on building deterrence, safeguarding stability and reinforcing diplomacy. They also point to a shift away from dependence on arrangements devised by others and towards active participation in shaping a new regional security order. The US-Iran war underscored the need to accelerate a process that began last year, particularly as the nature of the threats has changed. Armies crossing borders have given way to missiles, drones, militias and threats to ships, ports, energy installations and strategic straits.

A regional balance dominated by neither Iran nor Israel would give Syria greater room to rebuild its state, army and economy.

Distinct dimension

There is also a distinctly Syrian dimension to the Makkah Agreement. The three signatory states are, to varying degrees, among the most important partners of the "new Syria". Saudi Arabia played a central role in breaking it out of isolation. In May 2025, during President Donald Trump's visit to Riyadh, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressed for the lifting of US sanctions on Syria during a meeting between presidents Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa, which President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan joined by video link.

Since the fall of the Assad regime, Riyadh has worked to reintegrate Syria into its regional and international environment and to support the stability of the new state. Türkiye's relationship with Syria's new leaders predates the establishment of the new order itself. Years of war made Ankara a principal actor in northern Syria. After Assad's fall, that relationship developed from the management of a crisis along the border into a direct partnership with the new state. Damascus also developed good relations with Pakistan, the third signatory to the agreement.

Damascus can naturally be expected to view the Makkah Agreement favourably. While Syria is not yet a member, it stands to benefit from the emergence of a deterrence network bringing together its principal regional allies. Its importance becomes clearer still when considering who the regional adversaries of the "new Syria" are: Iran and Israel.

With the Syrian link in the corridor connecting Iran to Iraq and Lebanon severed along with the fall of the Assad regime, Tehran lost one of the most important pillars of its regional influence. In the aftermath of this major shift in the regional power balance, Israel sought to capitalise on the weakening of Iran and its axis. Southern Syria is one of the arenas in which these competing calculations now come into direct contact.

Between these two adversaries, Damascus faces a third, no less dangerous challenge: transnational militias. To the east are armed factions in Iraq, some tied to Iran and to the project it pursued inside Syria for years. To the west stands Hezbollah in Lebanon, which formed a central part of the military machine that fought alongside the Assad regime. Any regional arrangements that curb the ability of militias to operate independently of state institutions therefore serve the interests of the "new Syria".

Without being party to the Makkah Agreement, Syria benefits as it brings its allies together and weakens its adversaries.

Favourable environment

Syria needs stable states along its borders. From this perspective, the Makkah Agreement could potentially create a regional environment favourable to Damascus. Its allies are building broader networks of deterrence and cooperation. Iran is weaker than it was before Assad's fall. Pressure is growing to return weapons and security decision-making to the centre of the state rather than leaving them in the hands of actors beyond its institutions. A regional balance dominated by neither Iran nor Israel would also give Syria greater room to rebuild its state, army and economy.

Yet these considerable gains also present Syria with a challenge. Over the past 18 months, the new leadership has shown considerable skill in managing a complex web of regional balances. It has opened its doors to Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt and other Arab countries, preserved its special relationship with Türkiye, developed ties with the United States and Europe, and reached out to Russia and China. At the same time, it has sought to manage both confrontation and negotiation with Israel while avoiding entanglement in a broader regional conflict.

The principle appears simple, though its application is delicate. Syria needs all the help it can get to rebuild the state. It cannot afford to become an arena for conflict once again. The new agreement makes the management of this equation more sensitive. As relations among Damascus's allies assume a clearer form, questions about Syria's place within the new balances will become more pressing, while maintaining the necessary distance from all sides will require ever greater diplomatic precision.

This may prove the real test of Syrian diplomacy in the next phase. A strong and cohesive Damascus is itself an asset to the new alliance. Syria's immediate priorities are clearly to rebuild its army, bring armed force under a single authority, and reunify its institutions and territory.

At its heart, this is consistent with the principle behind the Makkah Agreement itself, which remains open to those wishing to join. Building strength is entirely compatible with the diplomacy pursued by Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad. Economies flourish in conditions of stability. Development requires security. Peace needs deterrence to protect it, and diplomacy draws resilience from power.

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