Andy Burnham: Britain's premier-in-waiting?

Burnham has built his brand around his northernness, in devolved government as Greater Manchester mayor and now as the newly elected Makerfield MP, which is in Greater Manchester. Burnham's emphatic win in Makerfield in seeing off the threat of Reform UK by 9000 votes—Reform had pulverised Labour in the May council elections—does not negate one of the biggest challenges he faces: does his popularity extend beyond his influence in the north to the rest of the country?

Burnham will know very well that the political model in Manchester, where he was so popular as mayor, is very different from the adversarial system in Westminster.

Early life and rise to office

Born in Liverpool in 1970, Burnham grew up in Culcheth, a village in Cheshire. His father, an engineer, and his mother, a doctor's receptionist, were both staunch Labour supporters, and he developed an early interest in politics, joining the Labour Party at the age of 14. At school, at the local Roman Catholic comprehensive, his English teacher recalls how he stood as a Labour candidate in mock elections and won by a landslide. Burnham and his two brothers were the first in their family to go to university, and he studied English at Cambridge University.  

After graduating, he started out in journalism, working for trade magazines and in his early 20s, he got his first break in politics, working as a researcher for the late Tessa Jowell, then MP for Dulwich and West Norwood, who would go on to be a minister under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. 

Despite his later declared dislike for Westminster politics, Burnham rose quickly through the ranks, becoming a special adviser to Culture Secretary Chris Smith before being elected as the MP for his hometown of Leigh. He first served as a junior minister under Blair, then joined the cabinet as chief secretary to the Treasury, and later as culture secretary and health secretary under Brown. 

Two-thirds of Labour MPs have been elected since Burnham left Westminster in 2017, so he is something of an unknown quantity to them. However, during the by-election campaign, he set out several policy ideas. 

Campaign issues

He committed to the economic rules Chancellor Rachel Reeves set, signalling that, if he became PM, he would not oversee a large rise in borrowing. He has also committed to Labour's manifesto promise not to increase the main rates of income tax, VAT or National Insurance, which would limit his ability to raise significant sums from tax. 

Burnham has been a long-term supporter of reform to social care for the elderly and infirm, dating back to his time as a health minister under Tony Blair in 2006-07 and then health secretary under Gordon Brown in 2009-2010. 

He has repeatedly suggested that inheritance tax should be replaced with a "national care levy," which, he said in a speech in 2023, would mean the "care (that) is provided is free" and "everybody would pay, but obviously the wealthiest would pay the most."

Possibly one of the most pressing issues facing Burnham if he replaces Sir Keir in No 10 is the ongoing row over the government's defence investment plan. Last week, John Healey resigned as Sir Keir's defence secretary, claiming the draft government proposals would take UK defence spending to 2.68% of GDP by 2030, falling "well short" of the 3% target he considered necessary. It came amid reports that the Ministry of Defence was seeking £28bn more in funding between now and the end of the decade, but had only been offered an additional £10bn.  

Speaking to The Times the day after Healey's resignation, Burnham said, alongside the 10-year approach to defence and security, there needed to be reform of public investment and procurement. He said this would reduce the welfare bill by bringing recipients into the workforce, ensuring more money was available for defence. 

"I am not squeamish about saying that the plan would be to reduce the welfare bill. Not at all," he said. Asked about those commitments during the by-election campaign, Burnham said he did not "resile" from his previous stance on inheritance tax. 

In his campaign launch speech, Burnham said he wanted "the biggest programme of council house building since the Second World War". He suggested this could be funded by rediverting the existing £39bn affordable housing programme entirely to social rent homes.

Burnham also indicated that he wanted to change how business, property and land are taxed, including reforms to what he described as a "highly regressive" council tax. Burnham told BBC Newsnight he wanted to reconsider the increase in National Insurance paid by employers, introduced by Rachel Reeves in the 2024 Budget. 

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts the increase that would generate revenue of £16.1bn in 2029/30. Burnham didn't promise to overturn the raise completely, although he said it was the "wrong decision".

Burnham's critics, however, claim he has already made several policy U-turns. For example, at last year's Labour Party conference, he said he hoped to see Britain ultimately rejoin the EU. He now says that he is "not advocating" a second referendum. He criticised the Home Secretary's changes to the immigration system but has since accepted the reforms. He advocated welfare payments to migrants on work, student and family visas, but now opposes this.

Despite these apparent contradictions, for the moment, Burnham appears the red-hot favourite to replace Starmer, with the majority of Labour MPs apparently convinced that he has the leadership skills to rebuild Labour's popularity with the voting public.