The latest Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain are part of a wave of cautious escalation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, even as Washington and Tehran appear close to agreeing on a final formula to halt the war, at least according to US President Donald Trump.
The Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain followed limited strikes by the US Navy on Iranian military sites on Qeshm Island, and can be read as a message to Washington that any escalation in Gulf waters will not remain confined to the maritime arena, but will widen to include other fronts, in line with Iran’s approach since the outbreak of the war.
The latest attacks also point to a gradual shift in Tehran’s approach, from a policy of collective punishment of the Gulf states to a more selective strategy that entrenches the divide-and-conquer logic. Iran is exploiting differences in Gulf positions to prevent the emergence of a unified front against it.
Bahrain, and indeed the rest of the Gulf states, have no good or obvious options for confronting Iran. Tehran’s systematic attacks on all Gulf states have demonstrated the futility of earlier efforts to rely on good neighbourliness to ward off the Iranian threat. Neither neutrality, nor the Beijing agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, nor Omani or Qatari mediation, nor the commercial ties that once linked the UAE to Iran were enough to spare these states Iranian missiles and drones.
Unless the Gulf states politically and militarily unite and seriously invest in both their offensive and defensive capabilities in a manner proportionate to the nature of the Iranian threat, deterrence will increasingly tilt in Iran’s favour. This unity, however, appears unlikely, at least in the near term, given the divergence of Gulf positions.
Iranian gripes
From Iran’s perspective, there are several reasons why it has trained its guns on Bahrain. First, its strategic partnership with the United States, embodied by the presence of the US Naval Forces Central Command on its territory. Second, its accession to the Abraham Accords, which brings it into an alliance with Israel, makes it an ideal target for signalling to its adversaries.

Iran is also unhappy with Bahrain's banning of its citizens from travelling to Iran and Iraq, its arresting of a cell linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, and its stripping of citizenship of 69 Bahraini nationals for alleged espionage or sympathy with Iran.
But the latest attacks are far from the first time Bahrain has found itself in Iran's crosshairs. It has long been on the Arab and Gulf front line amid regional tensions with Iran. Since the 1979 revolution, the emerging Islamic Republic of Iran has harboured hostility to Bahrain's monarchy. This sentiment is partly rooted in the regime's extremist ideology that believes Bahrain should be controlled by sectarian, pro-Iranian militias akin to those in Iraq and Lebanon.
There is also a nationalist view in Iran that views the Shah's abandonment of the claim to annex Bahrain in 1971, after the country gained independence from Britain, as a historic mistake. This is despite the fact that Ahmed Al Fateh, founder of Al Khalifa rule in Bahrain, liberated the island from the grip of agents of the Zand state, which ruled Iran nearly 250 years ago.
