The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for China’s energy security, with roughly 45–50% of its crude oil imports and nearly 30% of its liquefied natural gas passing through the corridor. China imports around 13 million barrels per day of crude oil, about 92% of which arrives via seaborne shipments. A prolonged disruption could remove 2 to 4 million barrels per day from China’s supply, exposing a significant vulnerability in its import-dependent system.
However, Beijing has built a layered resilience strategy that allows it to absorb part of the shock. At the core are vast strategic and commercial reserves, estimated at 1.2 to 1.4 billion barrels, enough to cover around 100 to 130 days of imports. Additional volumes, including around 46 million barrels of Iranian crude stored in “dark fleet” tankers and in bonded storage hubs such as Dalian and Zhoushan, provide extra flexibility.
At the same time, Gulf oil producers are bypassing Hormuz via the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman routes. Shipments from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, via pipelines to Yanbu and Fujairah, respectively, are already diverting around 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to China.
Imports from Russia, supplier of nearly 17–18% of China’s crude and 30% of its gas, are also rising through both seaborne shipments and the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean oil pipeline, alongside incremental flows from Kazakhstan and other producers. Yet overland pipelines remain limited in scale and cannot fully replace lost Gulf volumes, covering only ~5–15% of disrupted supply.
Ultimately, China’s response extends beyond supply substitution. Record domestic production, which hit 4.49 million bpd in March 2026, expanding renewable capacity, and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (~50% of new sales) are gradually reducing oil demand growth. Together, these measures significantly strengthen China’s ability to withstand a prolonged disruption in the Gulf.
