Sisi hopes Trump will save Egypt from Iran war fallout

Effects of war

Cairo's belief is that an extended war only benefits Israel, but is economically devastating to everyone else, including the Iranian people, GCC countries, and those standing on the periphery who source their energy supplies from the region, including Europe and Asia.

Economic fallout from the war is also slowly hitting Egypt, which has a large population and a struggling economy. Owing to surging energy prices, the Egyptian government has already had to raise fuel prices by almost 30%—a move that has not been popular. This has caused a sharp rise in commodity prices and exacerbated the economic woes millions of Egyptians were already suffering before the war.

Known as 'the city that never sleeps,' Cairo now turns its lights off at 9pm as part of the government's energy-saving measures. Tens of thousands of businesses also now close early, including shops and cafés. This is a judgment call. Some argue that early business closures harm economic activity, frighten investors, and slow growth.

The recent flights of foreign capital (estimated at billions of dollars) led the Egyptian pound to fall, which is bad news for both the government and consumers. Policymakers now fear public discontent and destabilisation. Meanwhile, Egypt's Islamists are said to be biding their time to exploit the country's  current vulnerabilities to make a political comeback.

In fact, Egypt's interior ministry announced several days ago that it had arrested Ali Mahmoud Mohamed Abdel Wanis, a leader of the outlawed Hasm group, which is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, after tracking his movements and extraditing him from an African country. He is alleged to have plotted to down el-Sisi's plane with missiles.

Only one winner

For Egypt, there is no good news from the US-Israeli war on Iran, not least because Tehran has retaliated against the Gulf countries that have been Cairo's staunchest backers in recent years, including at times of dire economic need. Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea from Yemen complicate the equation. They chase away global trade vessels from the Suez Canal, where the transit fees are a vital source of revenue for Egypt.

With both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed, Egypt suspects that Israel will argue for Gulf oil and gas to instead be routed through its territory to European customers. This would strip Egypt of the customs fees it collects through the Suez Canal and erode its strategic importance.

Meanwhile, Israel's bid to establish a permanent presence in southern Lebanon, up to the Litani River, shows how it wants to expand its borders. Israel's annexation of the Gaza Strip, the occupied West Bank, and most of southern Syria could soon follow, as the far-right government of Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to fulfil its biblical 'Greater Israel' vision, from the Nile River in Egypt to the Euphrates in Iraq, including Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq.

Geostrategically, Iran's defeat will shatter the delicate regional balance of power that Egypt had long relied upon to keep Israel at bay. Emboldened, Israel may now consider that Egypt (with whom it has had a US-brokered Peace Treaty since 1979) is the last remaining obstacle to regional hegemony. Appealing to Trump when Egypt's economy and national security are at stake, in a way, seems like a risky strategy for el-Sisi to pursue. But pursuing it, he nonetheless is.