Politics

Another coup in Africa, but this one isn't so clear-cut

Guinea-Bissau's military coup begs more questions than answers. Some conspiracy theories allege that Embaló orchestrated his own coup after realising that Dias was likely to win the election.

PATRICK MEINHARDT / AFP

Transitional government President General Horta N'Tam salutes an army officer during the swearing in ceremony at the Presidential Palace in Bissau, on 28 November 2025.

Another coup in Africa, but this one isn't so clear-cut

Sergey Eledinov

last update on 28 Nov 2025

On 26 November 2025, a day before the result of elections in the small West African state of Guinea-Bissau was due to be announced, incumbent president Umaro Sissoco Embaló called journalists to say that he had been “deposed” by the army. A day later, he was flown to the neighbouring state of Senegal, after General Horta N’Tam declared himself Guinea-Bissau’s new interim president.

Reportedly detained alongside Embaló were Gen. Biage Na N’tan, his deputy, Mamadou Touré, Interior Minister Botché Kande, several members of the electoral commission, several journalists, Embaló’s presidential election rival, Fernanda Dias, and former Prime Minister Domingos Pereira, whose PAIGC party led the liberation movement that ended Portuguese colonial rule. PAIGC had been barred from fielding a candidate, so Pereira backed Dias.

Gen. N’Tam was sworn in as interim president on 27 November on behalf of a group of military officers calling themselves the High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order, with a declared transition period of one year. The head of the military office at the presidency, Brig. Gen. Dinis N’Kanya said the military has seized power after “uncovering a plot to destabilise the country,” allegedly involving local and foreign politicians, an unnamed drug lord, and attempts at external interference in the election results.

PATRICK MEINHARDT / AFP — Guinea-Bissau Army general Horta N'Tam (L) looks on during his swearing-in ceremony as the transition leader on 27 November 2025.

Drugs and coups

Guinea-Bissau is rich in minerals, and its exports include cashews, but by far its most lucrative trade is cocaine, as the country’s military and political leaders work with Colombian drug groups to move millions of tonnes of the drug through the country. The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime says the cocaine trade in Guinea-Bissau has flourished under Embaló’s presidency.

In the aftermath of Guinea-Bissau’s coup—the country’s tenth since it gained independence in 1974—all civil institutions were suspended, despite Embaló having already suspended parliament since 2023, after an alleged coup attempt. N’Tam and others have not revealed the election results, which Dias says he won (as does Embaló). Although the army closed the country’s borders in the immediate aftermath of the coup, they have now been reopened, although a curfew is still in place, as is the official state of emergency and troop deployments in key locations in the capital.

The presidential takeover in Guinea-Bissau by a military junta is the 11th such African coup in the last five years, and the second in two months, after army commanders in Madagascar seized power in October. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has now frozen Guinea-Bissau out of "all decision-making bodies," and the African Union has suspended Guinea-Bissau "with immediate effect". The United Nations has also condemned the country.

Senegal confirmed that Embaló had arrived safely in Dakar, but it remains unclear whether the evacuation was initiated with the consent of the military junta or whether it was arranged by Senegal. Opposition politicians have also been released, with Dias issuing a statement that he was now in a safe location, without disclosing where he was due to fears of re-arrest. Government ministries and state institutions remained closed at the time this article was published.

What transpired was a chaotic, fragmented, and poorly organised version of the classic African military coup. A full-scale military coup is disciplined, centralised, and structured, with the army taking control of institutions and communications while removing political leaders.

What transpired was a chaotic, fragmented, and poorly organised version of the classic African military coup

Compared to some of Guinea-Bissau's past coups, such as those of 1980, 1999, 2003, and 2012, the coup of November 2025 appears to be a weak imitation. Analysts say N'Tam is close to Embaló, as is N'Tam's choice of Prime Minister, Ilidio Vieira Te, questioning whether there has been a real change of power. This has led to some conspiracy theories, including that Embaló orchestrated his own coup when he realised that Dias was likely to win the election.

Some smell a rat. Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who was in Guinea-Bissau as part of a West African election observer group, said Embalo had staged a "ceremonial coup" to stay in power. "A military doesn't take over governments and allow the sitting president that they overthrew to address press conferences and announce that he has been arrested," Jonathan said.

N'Tam's closeness to Embaló stemmed in part from the former's key role in preventing a coup against Embaló on 1 February 2022. Embaló, a former military leader himself, promoted N'Tam, whose forces detained the president and his inner circle without the customary scenes of violence or public humiliation. Indeed, Embaló continued to make calls, including to international news groups and foreign leaders.

Clear beneficiary

These and other factors suggest that the coup lacked direction, purpose, and logic. To some, it appears that the military was either controlled or manipulated, performing functional actions without directing policy. Although there is no direct evidence showing that Embaló orchestrated the coup, he is the political beneficiary.

Before the election, Embaló removed the frontrunner, PAIGC leader Domingos Simões Pereira, who had built a formidable pre-election coalition (Pai-Terra Ranka). This meant that anyone who did not want to vote for Embaló voted for Dias. Reports suggested that Dias had the greater numbers, and that the army were putting pressure on the electoral commission to call it for Embaló. The putsch, then, may have rescued Embaló from defeat —a loss that might have entailed far more than the mere forfeiture of office.

The coming weeks may clarify the situation, but it is already evident that the nature of the coup is dictated by the state of the institutional environment. After decades of a cocaine-fuelled economy, declining military discipline, and political fragmentation, coups in Guinea-Bissau are no longer the product of decisive officers; they are the outcome of managerial entropy.

The state's chronic weakness means that authority is brittle, the elite are divided, and the institutional apparatus cannot maintain order. With a feel for power, there is no knowing whether N'Tam will be willing to give it up in 12 months, as has been declared. Still, at least there appears to have been no external hand behind the coup. Most coups in Africa are initiated by African actors themselves. The international community is left having to adopt to the new, ever-changing realities.

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