Syria's obstacles to investment are many

Serious obstacles

Meanwhile, actual capital inflows remain limited. Deep structural obstacles—including lingering sanctions, legal ambiguity, lack of transparency, weak institutions, and political uncertainty—continue to deter serious investment. Those who have ventured in tend to be politically connected actors with high risk tolerance. Unsurprisingly, their investments favour quick-return sectors rather than infrastructure, public services, or productive industries that would have a meaningful impact on the average Syrian's life.

While the government has signalled its intent to address these structural challenges, the scale of the task is immense and progress will take time. With reconstruction costs estimated by the World Bank at $216bn, the road ahead is daunting. Negotiations with regions outside government control, particularly in the northeast, remain stalled. Without a broader political settlement, investor confidence is unlikely to improve. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, Syria remains several years away from becoming a genuinely attractive investment destination, let alone a regional economic power.

Crowdfunding has also taken centre stage in Syria's economic revival narrative, drawing both attention and applause. Since mid-August, at least ten campaigns have been launched nationwide, with local media citing a total of $500mn in pledges. In a country ravaged by more than a decade of war, such figures appear miraculous.

Yet the reality is more sobering. Most pledges have not translated into actual funds. For instance, the Syrian Development Fund announced $68mn in pledges in September. However, its director recently clarified that only 20 to 25% of that amount had been collected so far. Other campaigns have fared worse, securing less than 10% of the promised donations.

Part of the issue stems from the lack of mechanisms to make pledges legally binding. As a result, many individuals committed funds more for social prestige or public perception than from a genuine intention to contribute. Others came from institutions that counted already allocated budgets as "donations." In one prominent example, Finance Minister Mohammad Yisr Barnieh announced a $10mn contribution to the "Abshiri Hauran" campaign, only to later clarify that the money was part of an existing governorate budget.

While these campaigns have helped galvanise public enthusiasm, the lack of transparency and low implementation rates risk eroding trust. Big numbers alone do not rebuild countries. Honest reporting and tangible outcomes do.

Dangerous gap

The cycle of grand announcements followed by limited delivery is not a new phenomenon. But in Syria's post-war context, where institutional trust is already badly frayed, it is especially dangerous. The gap between the government's narrative of economic revival and the daily struggles of ordinary Syrians is vast.

Unemployment remains high, exacerbated by the mass dismissal of over 40,000 civil servants and security personnel earlier this year. Even those still employed struggle to survive, despite a recent 200% wage increase. Public salaries still fall far short of covering basic needs.

The government has managed to restore access to some essential goods, such as bread and fuel. However, their prices are often beyond what the average Syrian can afford. Electricity supply has improved modestly, but new rate hikes have triggered protests and public anger.

Soaring inflation and the volatility of the Syrian pound continue to drive up the cost of living. Meanwhile, the banking system remains largely dysfunctional. Liquidity is so limited that even those with money in their accounts often struggle to access it. In practice, this levels the playing field between the struggling poor and the constrained middle class, but only in suffering.

To be clear, the government's ambition is not the issue; its failure to communicate constraints is. It may be tempting for Syria's interim leadership to ride the wave of optimism. After all, momentum counts in politics. But hope built on hype is fragile. Every missed deadline, delayed rollout, and broken promise chips away at an already-depleted reservoir of public trust. By contrast, governments that manage expectations—those that speak honestly, even when the truth is difficult—tend to endure.

Credibility counts

In a country where the social contract has been shattered, credibility is not a luxury; it is a strategic necessity. During a period of transition, trust must be rebuilt step by step. Declarations mean little without delivery. 

This is especially true in Syria, where institutions are being rebuilt from the ground up. The interim government is not just trying to provide services—it is attempting to establish legitimacy, craft a new social compact, and unify a fractured state. Overselling future gains while failing to address current hardships only undermines that effort.

The risks of mismanaged expectations are not theoretical; they are real. They take shape as disillusionment, apathy, protest, and potentially even a return to instability. Ambitious projects, inspiring rhetoric, and global partnerships all have a role to play, but only if they are backed by tangible progress that people can feel in their everyday lives.

Syria stands at a pivotal crossroads. Its interim leadership faces a delicate balancing act: inspiring a weary population while managing expectations. Ambition alone will not move the country forward. Syrians do not need another round of lofty promises or high-profile announcements. They need leadership rooted in realism, transparency, and follow-through. Managing expectations is not a matter of public relations; it is a strategic imperative in a country where public trust remains dangerously fragile.

This moment offers a rare opportunity to rebuild the relationship between citizens and the state. If the interim government can align its vision with discipline and match its rhetoric with results, it could begin laying the foundation not just for economic recovery, but for lasting political legitimacy.

Ultimately, Syria's future will not be judged by the promises made, but by the trust earned.