Modern-day deterrence: different landscape, similar logic

A recent phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping showed that direct dialogue remains key to resolving bilateral tensions, just like during the Cold War

Modern-day deterrence: different landscape, similar logic

The recent phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping wasn't just about TikTok; it was about the unfolding rivalry between great powers. Today, wars are no longer being waged solely through military warfare, but also through algorithms, data, and the battle for public opinion.

In the 1960s, the world held its breath during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Nuclear confrontation loomed as American and Soviet ships advanced toward the Caribbean Sea. Luckily, a compromise was reached and a direct “hotline” was established between the White House and the Kremlin. The telephone served not only as an instrument of resolution but also as a safeguard against catastrophic miscalculation.

A quarter-century later, Reagan and Gorbachev sat across the table. The SALT and START treaties followed—efforts to limit arsenals and temper the arms race. And while these agreements didn't end the Cold War, they made it more manageable. At the time, dialogue was a crucial tool to avert nuclear war, and, to this end, leaders were in frequent contact.

Different landscape

Today, the battlefield landscape is much different. While the spectre of nuclear warfare still looms, another menace also lurks: a small algorithm capable of reaching millions of screens. It sits in smartphones held in people's pockets and palms.

Against this backdrop, TikTok shouldn't be viewed as just a frivolous pastime, but as an instrument of influence, a conduit of power, and a reservoir of data. America's elite political class view it as a national security threat, fearing China could exploit it for surveillance or election interference. But Beijing sees it as a symbol of Chinese ascendance: living proof that it can compete with the crème de la crème of Silicon Valley.

Even in the age of smartphones and artificial intelligence, the telephone remains the primary tool of diplomacy

Eager to project himself as the guardian of national security and the consummate dealmaker, Trump approached the call with electoral calculations in mind. For his part, Xi had a different set of calculations. He is keen to ease tensions with Washington at a time when his country is going through an economic slowdown, acutely aware that escalation with the US could unsettle markets and undermine domestic stability. But he also understood that he could defend—and even advance—China's interests without confrontation.

Similar logic

The logic behind the TikTok agreement is not dissimilar to nuclear deliberations of the past. Then, the question was how to prevent a world-ending nuclear war, and deterrence rested on the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Today, "mutual influence" also plays a big role, as countries can increasingly penetrate the digital sphere of rival nations and thus gain access to critical market data and even influence public opinion.

And while the Trump–Xi call didn't resolve most bilateral disputes—trade tensions persist, the issue of Taiwan remains unresolved, and the South China Sea is still a flashpoint arena—the call did open a crucial window. It underscored the importance of hotlines and rules of engagement, reminding us that—even in the age of smartphones and artificial intelligence—the telephone remains the primary tool of diplomacy.

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