Lebanon faces an impossible choice: war with Israel or civil war

Sooner or later, Lebanon's leaders will have to make a choice. Until then, it will drift further into the abyss.

Lebanon faces an impossible choice: war with Israel or civil war

Following Israel's crippling war on Lebanon, which ended in late 2024 with a supposed ceasefire agreement, a second round of hostilities looms large—signalled most recently by US envoy Tom Barrack and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Just a week after Israel carried out its infamous pager attack, which killed dozens and maimed thousands of Lebanese citizens on 17 September 2024, Israeli warplanes launched a sweeping assault across dozens of towns, stretching from the southern border to northern Bekaa and including Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Devastating toll

Official figures indicate 4,000 casualties during two months of unprecedented aerial and ground bombardment—surpassing even the devastation of the 1982 invasion—with unofficial estimates placing the death toll between 10,000 and 11,000, with many still missing and tens of thousands wounded. Over 5,000 Hezbollah fighters are believed to have been killed, including most of the group's top brass leadership.

Meanwhile, the cost of the destruction and damage is astronomical—running into the tens of billions of dollars—dashing any hopes of recovery from Lebanon's economic collapse that has been ongoing since 2019. Israel levelled entire villages and neighbourhoods, and thousands of residents cannot return to their homes due to the threat of being targeted by Israel or because basic services like electricity and water needed to sustain life have yet to be restored.

Israel has erased hospitals, schools, businesses and historic landmarks—and along with them, the aspirations of ordinary citizens who once dreamed of a better tomorrow.

Israel has erased hospitals, schools, businesses and historic landmarks—and along with them, the dreams of the Lebanese for a better tomorrow

As things stand now, Hezbollah is lying low and licking its wounds. Israel's war clearly dealt a crippling blow to its military, security and financial infrastructure, laying bare the group's vulnerabilities, despite its tough talk and hubris.

All bad options

And as Israel once again hints at renewed military action if the Lebanese Armed Forces do not move to disarm Hezbollah, the situation looks bleaker than ever. The political establishment understands that such a move would mean a descent into civil war—something most Lebanese fervently reject. Lebanon's new leadership is now engaged in a careful dance to finesse the issue whenever a US envoy visits.

In fairness, all three options available to Lebanese leaders are bad: a return to war with Israel, capitulating to Tel Aviv's demands of disarming Hezbollah with the risk of civil war, or a continuation of the status quo, which means no funds for reconstruction and continued economic stagnation.

Squaring the circle has become an increasingly impossible task. Sooner or later, Lebanon's leaders will have to make a choice. Until then, it will drift further into the abyss.

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