Israel’s strike in Qatar dashes hopes for Gaza ceasefire

Big talk, small stick

The unprecedented attack by Israel on 9 September against Hamas figures inside Qatar—a major non-NATO ally of the United States that houses the largest US military airbase in the region—shows just how much dynamics in the region are being driven by actors in the region, primarily Israel. The second Trump administration has, in many ways, been a bystander.

Although Trump started off on a high note when he returned to office in January, with a ceasefire and hostage release deal in place, he has since lost focus. His posting of a bizarre AI-generated video on social media with him and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu relaxing on a futuristic Gaza beach puzzled and unsettled many. Meanwhile, he didn't exercise enough leverage to ensure the implementation of the ceasefire deal he clinched before his inauguration.

In March, a major Arab summit in Cairo produced a detailed plan with commitments for the long-term reconstruction and development of Gaza and a reaffirmation of the commitment to create a state of Palestine, and the Trump team basically ignored and failed to engage with these ideas in any meaningful way.  Israel ended the ceasefire in March by renewing its military campaign and imposing a crippling siege on Gaza that included the cutoff of humanitarian aid in an effort to pressure Hamas in negotiations. 

When the humanitarian situation grew ever more dire inside the Gaza Strip, the Trump administration created the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation—a flawed aid mechanism to deliver aid in a way that has not met the needs of Palestinians and killed at least a thousand aid seekers, but perhaps many more.

All the while, Trump made episodic statements that his team would achieve a new ceasefire and hostage release deal.  It even took the unconventional step of meeting directly with Hamas rather than through intermediaries like Qatar and Egypt. 

Read more: Direct US-Hamas talks ruffle feathers in Israel

But all of these moves have failed to produce a ceasefire. And absent a coherent diplomatic framework to produce a sustainable end to this conflict, Israel's military campaign continues.

In many ways, there are parallels between Trump's failure to produce a peace deal in Russia's war against Ukraine, despite promises that he could do so in one day. Just as Russia's Vladimir Putin continues to snub Trump's efforts to end the war, Israel's Netanyahu is doing the same, testing Trump's limits along the way, as evidenced by his decision to strike at Hamas inside Qatar. On many of the big foreign policy files, Trump's unpredictable diplomacy of distraction has mostly come up empty. 

Missing ingredients

The two missing ingredients that could help produce better results on this front are: first, a return to US diplomatic leadership that seeks to lay out a credible formula and vision for a lasting ceasefire that leads to peace. This requires a steadier strategic focus and a full team inside the US administration working on these issues, and neither seems to be on the horizon. 

The second ingredient is to work more closely with Arab partners, particularly Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco, all of whom have formal ties with Israel, as well as countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, which can offer diplomatic, economic, and security support to Palestinians in a way that reassures Israel. 

Without these two ingredients—strong leadership and close cooperation with partners—Israel is likely to continue down the path it is currently on, and the Trump administration will continue to fall short of its aspirations for Middle East peace.