Trump's tariffs test India's geopolitical autonomy

The tariffs come with serious geopolitical undertones—especially in regard to the Ukraine war, as Trump warned India over its purchasing of Russian oil and arms

Trump's tariffs test India's geopolitical autonomy

Long considered a friend by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump slapped 25% import duties on India on 30 July after alluding that efforts toward a bilateral trade deal between Washington and New Delhi were not going well.

“Their tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the world, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary trade barriers of any country," Trump said. The comments echo Trump’s position during his first term, when he famously called India the "Tariff King". More recently, Trump declared that he "doesn't care" what India does with Russia. "They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care," he said.

As India absorbs the shock of Trump's recent placing of high tariffs on its exports to the United States, its official response has been carefully worded. This is because the tariffs come with serious geopolitical undertones—especially in regard to the war in Ukraine, as Trump warned India over its continued purchasing of Russian oil and military equipment.

As one of the chief buyers of Russian energy, New Delhi is acutely aware of the high stakes involved, which is why its response to Trump's new tariffs was carefully worded.

"The government has taken note of a statement by the US President on bilateral trade. The government is studying its implications," an official government statement read.

India and the US have been engaged in negotiations on concluding a fair, balanced and mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement over the last few months. We remain committed to that objective," it continued.

As one of the chief buyers of Russian energy, New Delhi is acutely aware of the high stakes involved, which is why its response to Trump's new tariffs was carefully worded

Serious test

The latest developments represent a serious test to India's commitment to what it calls "strategic autonomy"—the freedom to pursue a more independent foreign policy without external pressure. As such, the official statement made sure to note that India would "take all necessary measures to safeguard our national interest."

The statement hinted that there are disagreements with the US over some sectors involving the "welfare of our farmers, entrepreneurs, and MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises)."

Trump has also spoken out about India's role in the BRICS bloc of nations. Membership in it is key to New Delhi's concept of strategic autonomy. Originally made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the group now has 11 members and more nations in the Global South are keen to join. It is looking into establishing independent payment platforms to ease international dependence on the dollar while encouraging its members to trade using national currencies.

At the press conference on the tariff decision, Trump said: "BRICS, which is basically a group of countries that are anti the United States and India is a member of that, if you can believe it. It is an attack on the dollar, and we are not going to let anybody attack the dollar. So it's partially BRICS and it's partially the trade situation."

Going forward, Modi and his trade negotiation team have to tread carefully, as much is at stake both regarding commerce and geopolitics

High stakes negotiations

India's normally tough trade negotiators will now have to carefully negotiate with their US counterparts on the question of greater market access to US exporters, particularly in the agriculture and dairy sectors.

On the domestic front, the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing pressure from the Congress-led opposition to respond directly to Trump. Going forward, Modi and his trade negotiation team have to tread carefully, as much is at stake both regarding commerce and geopolitics.

Read more: India rising – charting success in global trade

India's opposition party has also expressed its reservations over Trump's claimed role in helping end the India-Pakistan flare-up in April. For its part, New Delhi has been at pains to paint the ceasefire as a bilateral outcome, not wanting to appear that the decision came as a result of external pressure. But statements from Islamabad have acknowledged Trump's role in the détente, making Modi's government look weak.

Time will tell how India chooses to respond to the tariffs, but clearly, there is much at stake for the country. Not only regarding its trade policies, but more importantly, its geopolitical autonomy.

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