Caution needed: stepping through the Syrian minefield

At this critical juncture, Syria could go one of two ways: towards stability and security, or towards chaos and bloodshed. Its friends are helping to guide it, but Iran has other ideas.

Caution needed: stepping through the Syrian minefield

The final communique of Syria’s National Dialogue Conference in February envisioned that the country would become a ‘state of citizenship’ within weeks or months. After half a century of rule by the Assad family, and after 13 years of devastating civil war, the country’s problems could not be described simply as challenges. Syria is a minefield.

From Israel’s occupation and airstrikes to the return of Islamic State (which attacked Douweila Church in the Damascus suburbs last month), the interference of Assad’s former ally Iran, the dire economic situation, and sectarian fighting, Syria is awash with mines. Some have already detonated. Earlier this month, fighting between Druze and Bedouins killed around 1,000 people in Suweida, while in March, fighting involving the country’s Alawite minority led to a similar number of deaths.

The new government is trying to defuse these mines one-by-one. In this Herculean task, it is benefitting from unprecedented Arab and international support, including Saudi investment and the United States’ decision to ease Assad-era sanctions. Yet Israel, which attacked the new Syrian government two weeks ago, still strains at the leash. Had it not been for Saudi, Jordanian, Turkish, and American pressure, Israel could have done even more damage.

Stability sought

Amid the chaos, a Saudi initiative produced a joint statement from ten Arab countries plus Türkiye. It reaffirmed support for Syria’s security, unity, stability, and sovereignty, while rejecting all foreign interference in Syrian affairs and condemning the repeated Israeli strikes that undermine the Syrian government’s efforts to build a new Syria. The statement underscored that Syria’s security and stability is a cornerstone of regional peace and therefore a collective top priority.

Damascus is trying to defuse these mines one-by-one. In this Herculean task, it is benefitting from unprecedented Arab and international support

The Saudi Syrian investment forum held last week in Damascus, during which 47 agreements were signed, should be seen in this vein. It should also be seen as one of two competing projects, the other being an Iran-led strategy of chaos and protracted conflict, stoked by remnants of the Assad regime, Israel, and IS.

Stability is sought, but for now, it is hard to come by, in no small part because Syrians no longer trust one another, and they remain sceptical of the government. Now more than ever, the Syrian state must demonstrate that it belongs to all Syrians. Investigative committees and judicial processes will help build trust but are insufficient on their own. There must be no further instances of violations attributed to government forces. Every time there is, another mine is stepped on, quickly producing a quagmire.

The state must open the door to political engagement and Syrians must be allowed to rediscover one another. They must learn to disagree and agree through politics, not conflict. To encourage this, the government must act with transparency towards its people. Those who stood side-by-side against Assad must also now stand as equal partners in the rebuilding of the nation.

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