Elon Musk’s new political party: grand plans and a tall task

Outsiders sometimes succeeded in state or House elections, especially independent candidates. Bernie Sanders, for example, has repeatedly been elected as an independent senator for Vermont, while Angus King has likewise represented Maine in the Senate as an independent since 2013. But these are individuals rather than movements, and both have worked closely with the Democratic party.

Alternative parties have been far less successful. In 2024, the 'No Labels' Party—a centrist group founded in 2010 and associated with the late Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman—struggled to field a presidential candidate (despite stating that it would) and called 'time' seven months before the election.

In presidential elections, the most recent 'success' was George Wallace, who won five states for his 'Independent American' party in 1968, finishing third. Similarly, Strom Thurmond won four states in 1948 for the segregationist 'Dixiecrat' party, but he too was a distant third. The closest third party in a presidential election was former president Teddy Roosevelt, who came second for his new 'Progressive Party' in 1912, but still lost heavily to Woodrow Wilson, who won 40 of 48 states.

Indeed, the last time a third party was successful was when the Republicans themselves emerged in the 1850s, culminating in their first presidential election win, when Abraham Lincoln triumphed in 1860. While Musk might see himself as a comparably transformative figure, it illustrates how hard new parties have found it since then to break the Democrat-Republican duopoly.

Lessons from Europe

Rather than looking to American history for inspiration, the America Party might instead look at recent successes by newcomers abroad, especially Europe, where new entrants have thrived, few more so than President Emmanuel Macron's En Marche movement in France (now rebranded as 'Renaissance'), which is still less than a decade old.

En Marche was formed in 2016, but just over a year later the centrist party had won both the presidency and an absolute majority in parliament. Like Musk, Macron sought to take advantage of the French's public's disappointment in the traditional parties of the left and right with a new offering.

Interestingly, while Macron's movement has since fallen from the commanding heights of 2017, another French outsider party, National Rally (a rebranded version of the far-right Front National), has gained popularity, only narrowly missing out on outright power at the most recent elections. Like Macron, National Rally rode the 'outsider' wave.

The same is true of other European populist parties. In Italy, Prime Minister Georgia Melloni's Brothers of Italy party won power in 2022, having only been formed a decade earlier. Likewise in Germany, Alternative for Germany (AFD), which Musk backs, has made steady inroads since its founding in 2013, and is now one of the main parties.

Most European countries have systems of proportional representation, in which smaller parties can have a lot of influence, but America's first-past-the-post system (which closely mirrors that in the UK), makes it harder for new parties to form, gain support and topple established players.

The Canadian model

Instead of Europe, then, Musk might look closer to home for guidance. Like the US, Canada has a two-party system, but one that saw an insurgent third party crash-land on the political scene when, in 1987, the new right-wing populist party Reform was founded in western Canada to challenge the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives (PC).

Its emphasis on social and fiscal conservatism, small government, and decentralised power saw it gradually peel voters away from Canada's traditional right-wing party (the PC), leading to the latter's decimation in the 1993 parliamentary elections. Yet rather than displace the PC, Reform effectively took it over, a merger establishing the new Conservative Party of Canada in 2003.

The new party's first leader, Stephen Harper, later became prime minister. He was a former Reform MP. Interestingly, analysts wonder whether this 'takeover' model might be the inspiration for another Reform party—that of Nigel Farage in the UK. Observers have drawn parallels between the two men, and wonder if Reform UK's game-plan is to merge with (and dominate) Britain's Conservative party.

This may be a better option for Musk than trying to displace Trump's Republicans. If he can win a handful of seats, this might give him the momentum to win over other conservative voters, ultimately allowing the room for some kind of merger. It is a big ask, but one that some say Trump has already deployed successfully, in his 'takeover' the Republican Party, recasting it in his own image.

Trump won his initial success by positioning himself as the anti-establishment candidate, like Reform, En Marche, Brothers of Italy, and AFD. It will be hard for Musk to repeat the same trick, but not impossible. Throughout his career, Musk has had a habit for pulling off the 'hard but not impossible'.

Whether the America Party is just an expensive lobbying trick, in an effort to nudge Trump towards a partial climbdown on debt policy, or whether Musk is serious about his new party, it may yet emerge as a player of note in US politics.