Politics

What the Gulf states must do to establish deterrence over Iran

Iran’s defeat at the hands of Israel has presented an opportunity for the likes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to make sure it never rebuilds to the same threat level. That requires two things.

Al Majalla

Israeli and American bombing has dealt the biggest blow to Iran in decades. Will Gulf Arab states make the most of this window of opportunity?

What the Gulf states must do to establish deterrence over Iran

Kevin Donegan

last update on 09 Jul 2025

The Middle East has been reshaped and a bold new approach can ensure it holds, but the clock is ticking. Iran, the regional bully for decades, has been defanged and there is a now a window of opportunity to make this new Middle East permanent.

Iran suffered in a one-sided conflict against Israel, whose prior military interventions shattered Iranian proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, and weakened the Houthis. At the same time, Iran lost a regional ally when the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad fell.

All this has shown the Iranian leadership that they need a nuclear weapon to achieve parity with Israel. We can assume that they have already begun enriching uranium to the grade needed to make a bomb, and that they are already rebuilding their own military (the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) and the arsenals of proxies.

Sense an opportunity

For Arab nations, this newly shaped Middle East presents an opportunity that was inconceivable before 7 October 2023, when Hamas and other Gaza-based terrorists attacked southern Israel. Long a menace, Iran is now weaker than it has been for decades, and although the regime is still in power, it is now looking inward (rather than abroad), obsessed with finding “Israel spies in the ranks”.

The Gulf Arab states can take advantage of this window of Iranian weakness by taking a bold new approach to two longstanding regional problems. The first is to define and implement an ‘off-ramp’ for Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza. While the US can get Israel to stop fighting, Israel needs a structure that will reassure it on future security.

John Wessels/AFP — Israeli emergency services search the rubble after an Iranian missile struck the Israeli town of Beersheba on 24 June 2025.

The second is to boldly reshape their strategic approach to defence reform to quickly establish an effective Arab deterrent to any Iranian adventurism in the future. To do so, they should leverage the lessons from Israel’s immensely successful 12-day war, while taking an innovative new approach to warfighting such as we have seen by Ukraine.

Only by helping Israel wind down its operations in Gaza and by building up a military deterrent will the Gulf states ensure that Iran does not eventually resume its role as regional bully. For now, there is a brief respite, while the bully licks his wounds.

Dismantling an enemy

Israel’s actions and other events since 7 October 2023 have completely reshaped the Middle East, significantly shifting the balance of both power and influence away from Iran and its proxies (the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’).

Hamas no longer has any remaining military capability to threaten Israel. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s leadership has been decapitated, their communications and internal security have been thoroughly penetrated, and most of their formidable arsenal of modern missiles, rockets and other weapon systems has been destroyed.

In Syria, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and other rebel forces launched an offensive operation that rapidly drove the Assad regime from power and ended 50 years of family rule, while in Yemen, the US campaign to stop the Houthis from attacking commerce in the Red Sea appears to have had the desired effect, with key leaders killed.

The Gulf Arab states can take advantage of this window of Iranian weakness by taking a bold new approach to two longstanding regional problems

All of this culminated in Iran taking a brutal beating from Israel over 12 days in a very one-sided war, during which Israeli intelligence was shown to have penetrated the Iranian leadership and its command-and-control operations, dismantling Iran's air defence systems with drone strikes to give Israel immediate air superiority.

Israel used this to kill more than a dozen senior Iranian military and security leaders, as well as several of the country's top nuclear scientists. It also devastated Iran's ballistic missile launching capabilities, its defence manufacturing capability, sites involved in Iran's weapons supply chains, and sites related to Iran's nuclear programme, including those deep underground, like Fordow, which was hit by US 'bunker-buster' bombs.

Learning lessons

Time is needed to fully understand the impact, but it seems clear is that—at best—only small elements of Iran's nuclear programme remain intact. Be that as it may, Israelis will not sit idle, and will not be surprised again. They have learned the lesson of 7 October and if they see Iran rebuilding elements of their nuclear programme, we can expect Israel to take direct action once again.

Maxar Technologies/AFP — A satellite image dated 1 July 2025, shows activity near the perimeter building and southern holes caused by the 22 June US airstrike on the Fordow Fuel EnrichmentPlant complex in Iran.

Arab states have more at stake than 'just' a nuclear Iran. They cannot allow Iran to rebuild to its point of strength just a few years ago. Likewise, they cannot assume Israel or the US will come to their defence. While it has taken a beating, Iran remains well armed, with thousands of missiles and drones that can target the Gulf Arab nations.

In recent years, Iran or its proxies have attacked the several Gulf states, often with missiles. Some were intercepted, others were not, yet Iran was never held accountable. With Saudi Arabia's Vison 2030 and the UAE's Vison 2031 both requiring regional peace and stability to underpin the economic development they seek, deterrence against Iran is required, as is ending the war in Gaza.

A future path forward for the Palestinians is now urgently needed, and the Israelis do not have one. Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will have to take the lead in proposing and implementing a path forward over Gaza. This will open the door to leveraging Isreal's dominance over Iran to accelerate the building of Arab deterrence.

Technology integration

As both Ukraine and Israel have displayed in combat, use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the battlefield integrated with effective signals and human intelligence can significantly reduce the time and expense of building military forces and warfighting capabilities. By way of example, look at how Ukraine decimated the Russian Black Sea fleet by applying these concepts—despite not having a Navy.

Winning is no longer determined by who can assemble the largest force on the battlefield. Israel does not possess the biggest military in the region, far from it. Instead, its success against Iran and others relied on its ability to integrate—and act on—information gleaned from vast amounts of data, filtered and funnelled by AI software, evaluated by intelligence analysts, then acted upon by a well-trained Air Force.

Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters — People visit the site damaged by an Israeli airstrike that killed Lebanon's Hezbollahleader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in Dahieh, Beirut's southern suburb, on 6 December 2024.

Leveraging these lessons will let Saudi Arabia and the UAE build an Arab deterrence, with integrated air- and missile-defence systems to guard against future Iranian aggression. This aligns with Gulf states' investment strategies in the fields of AI, autonomation, and space.

The time is now. There is a fleeting window of opportunity for Gulf Arab states to make permanent the newly shaped Middle East, in which Iran can no longer project power to force its will on its near neighbours. Time is of the essence. Iran will seek to rebuild and is also likely to learn valuable lessons from last month's war, moving quickly to close off all identified vulnerabilities.

It will take time, but it will also take time for the Gulf Arab states to get organised, not only on defence reform but on Gaza, too. Boldly reshaping the Gulf Arab states' defence to embrace this new proven way of warfare, leverage Isreal's clear dominance over Iran, and learn the lessons on integrating technology and AI into existing forces is a recipe for future deterrence. Anything less, Iran will sense a way back.

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