Why France may finally recognise Palestine

In Algiers on 15 November 1988, PLO chairman Yasser Arafat formally proclaimed the State of Palestine, the Arab League having designated the PLO as the "sole representative" of the Palestinian people and reaffirmed their right to establish an independent state years earlier, in 1974. At the United Nations, 104 states voted to acknowledge this proclamation. Only the United States and Israel voted against it.

France was not one of the 104. Mitterrand justified his reluctance to add a French vote by pointing to the absence of a "responsible and independent authority governing a defined territory and population". While legally valid, this did not account for the fact that Palestine was a state under military occupation, therefore unable to act freely.

By March 1999, several years after the landmark Oslo Accords, 15 European nations affirmed Palestinians' "legitimate and unrestricted right" to statehood and said they would consider recognition "when the time comes." This declaration was largely driven by French President Jacques Chirac. Yet he did not pursue the matter further following the collapse of the Camp David II negotiations in 2000.

In 2011, during the presidency of Nicolas Sarkozy, France again missed the opportunity to match its rhetoric (despite its stated support for a two-state solution) at a UN vote to upgrade Palestine's status from 'observer entity' to 'full member state.' With just eight months before a French presidential election, Sarkozy was wary of a public confrontation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Recent efforts

A similar scenario played out in February 2017, when French President François Hollande received a letter signed by 154 French parliamentarians urging him to honour his longstanding commitment to the Palestinian cause before leaving office in three months' time. Hollande declined.

"Unilateral recognition of the Palestinian state by France would not have the desired impact," he said. Amidst the ongoing tragedy in Gaza and the renewed diplomatic engagement, has the moment finally arrived for France to deliver on its long-deferred promise of recognition?

In May 2024, Paris did not join Madrid, Dublin, and Oslo in recognising Palestine, arguing that the legal criteria for statehood—territory, a population, and effective governance—had not yet been met, adding that "the situation on the ground… presents a virtual reality".

Paris has long said Palestinian recognition must be given with Israel's consent, achieved through direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. That consent looks further away today than it has ever been. Indeed, French indifference to the Palestinian cause since 2017 has seemed to mirror a broader international ennui.

The October 7 2023, attack on southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli response have put the Palestinian question back on the global diplomatic agenda, prompting renewed efforts to find a viable two-state model.

Treading a new path?

If it does, France would be far from alone, with 147 UN member states (75%) having already recognised the State of Palestine. Yet France would be the first to do so from the G7 group of nations. French recognition would therefore represent a significant geopolitical development for the Middle East.

France, which has a large Arab and Jewish population, is divided. Many on the political left have welcomed the initiative, while many on the political right have condemned it, warning that recognition could be interpreted as rewarding Hamas.

Various Palestinian factions, including the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority and Gaza-based Hamas, praised the French. Those close to President Macron say it stems from a desire to "break away from impotence, inaction, and lethargy" on Palestine, adding that the idea of waiting for Israel's consent is no longer viable in light of its campaigns against Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank.

Many see unilateral Western recognition of Palestine as a last-gasp way of preventing the two-state solution from being killed off. Predictably, Israel has reacted strongly. Netanyahu said: "Establishing a Palestinian State amounts to a major incentive for terrorism."

Yet Macron says this is part of a broader French vision for a "comprehensive agreement", along with the release of all hostages, a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Strip, and the recognition of Israel by several Arab and Islamic states. But with Donald Trump in the White House, Netanyahu will feel no pressure from allies.

Macron's condition—that Arab states recognise Israel—virtually ensured its non-fulfilment. Even if Arab states wanted to thaw relations with Tel Aviv, many would feel that they could not do so while Israel's far-right government continues bombing Gaza. Moreover, what Palestine would they be recognising? That led by the Palestinian Authority, or by Hamas?

Macron hopes a largely symbolic gesture like recognition of Palestine will prompt others to follow suit, yet his primary ambition is not to push a Palestinian state, but to shore up its credibility of Paris among key Arab partners like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and to position France as a 'bridge' between the West and the South.