The far right licks its lips at European Parliament elections in June

The newly elected parliamentarians will be busy. Europe needs innovative strategies to regulate trade, navigate the digital market, and harness Artificial Intelligence. Moreover, the EU has lost competitiveness, has been slow to embrace new technologies, and has charted sluggish progress towards a green economy.

Beyond its borders, the world seems a far riskier place geopolitically than it did the last time voters voted, while its migration policy continues to polarise. On sovereignty, Europeans are divided. Bolstering the political cohesion of the European Union is by no means a universal dream. Parliamentarians will need to consider Europe's identity, trajectory, and position on the global stage.

The outcome of the elections will shape the agenda for the next five years, but whereas there are big issues to unravel, the Union itself seems to have support. Recent polling across 18 member states suggests that the parliamentary majority most likely to endure (with 398 seats out of 720) is a pro-EU coalition.

This comprises the centre-right, the Social Democrats, the European People's Party (EPP), and the Liberal Democrats of the Renew Europe Movement, mirroring the victorious coalition of the previous legislature. The EPP has the most seats with 177, closely followed by the Socialists and Liberal Democrats. This shows the dominance of centrist and pro-EU forces within the European Parliament.

Far-right rising

According to polling data, far-right and ultra-conservative factions are poised to gain in France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium. These countries comprise both the original rump and the beating heart of the EU.

In France and Germany, left-wing parties are expected to lose ground, as is President Emmanuel Macron's party, which is being strongly challenged by Marine Le Pen's National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella.

Similarly, Germany's Green Party finds itself in a tight race for third with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintains its lead, with the Social Democratic Party still second. These shifts may signal a reconfiguration of political forces within both France and Germany, with implications for the broader European political landscape.

According to polls, the far right stands to win the third-largest share of seats after the centre-right and centre-left blocs. This may be at the expense of liberals, left-wingers, and environmentalists. Alliances (such as a broad right-wing coalition) now loom. Yet such post-vote partnerships hinge on the outcome of intricate negotiations, particularly between conservative populists and the European centre-right.

In the mix are parties like Fidesz, led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and European reformists sympathetic to his allies, such as Italy's Fratelli d'Italia, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Poland's Law and Justice Party.

Ballot as barometer

Despite this, the balance of power within the European Parliament is unlikely to undergo significant upheaval in the next term. Pro-EU parties—namely, the European People's Party (EPP), the Social Democrats (SPD), and Renew Europe—will have ample opportunity to forge consensus on future European legislation.

However, the rise of far-right and nationalist parties could amplify the influence of obstructionists, particularly on 'culture war issues' such as the environment. A discernible rightward shift would also boost groups opposed to the European project, just as the continent faces huge tests, from an adventurous and militaristic Russia to an increasingly isolationist America.

European elections operate under a proportional representation system, which serves as a barometer of public opinion and shows how national concerns play out in the broader European context.

There is nothing to suggest the public's disinterest. On the contrary, at the last European election, turnout surged, perhaps owing to the relevance of decisions made by European politicians to people's lives and countries' economies.

Britain's vote to exit the EU in 2016 also focused minds. Until Brexit, the idea of a major member state leaving the Union was unthinkable. It is now thinkable.  

Macron's warning

Another change has been to the idea of enduring European peace and stability. After World War II, this became a cornerstone of European integration, yet it has been shaken by the war in Ukraine. Europe is not immune to war, after all.

On 25 April, French President Emmanuel Macron was in no mood to skirt the issue. Addressing the Sorbonne, he underscored the existential threat facing Europe, adding: "It is possible for Europe to die." His vision for Europe includes a European military polity, coordinated nuclear deterrence, and comprehensive missile defence to reduce the continent's reliance on the American nuclear umbrella.

It reflected the growing urgency of Europe's leaders to address the continent's vulnerabilities and chart a course towards autonomy and security.

"We are not armed to face the risk that is ahead of us," he said. "We have begun to awaken. France, for its part, has doubled its defence budget… but at a continental level, this wake-up is too slow and too weak in light of the widespread rearmament of the world and its acceleration."

Read more: Emmanuel Macron's urgent message for Europe

He said that China-US tensions had led to increased spending on arms and technology. "We now have uninhibited regional powers demonstrating their capabilities: Russia and Iran, to mention just two. Europe is being encircled."

Beyond defence and security, election campaigns across the 27 member states cover a spectrum of issues, which shows how the European experience is evolving.

Over time, the European idea has steadily taken root, taking the EU from a concept to a tangible reality that permeates various aspects of life. From the environment to agriculture, industry to defence, energy to labour, the EU's decisions influence lives, especially since European law often supersedes national law. For voters, issues like migration and climate change often take precedence.

While European leaders may want to project power on the world stage, addressing the issues that affect citizens' well-being and livelihoods remains their priority.

Whether it becomes a union of nations or a United States of Europe, the EU is still an influential player on the world stage. The debate over its identity and future will undoubtedly continue after next month's elections, regardless of how the far right fares.