Are Israel and Türkiye on a collision course in Syria?

Tel Aviv wants a weak Syria, whereas Ankara is working to strengthen Damascus and build a cohesive national army. With such diametrically opposed strategies, a clash between the two seems inevitable.

Are Israel and Türkiye on a collision course in Syria?

Since Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham toppled the Assad regime, Israel has gone on the offensive in Syria in a bid to weaken and divide it in the hope that the emerging government will be bogged down by internal problems and unable to pose a threat.

Right off the bat, Israel began an intense air bombing campaign, targeting Syria’s military and strategic assets. None of its more than 740 air strikes carried out in the last four months were in retaliation for any attack from Syria, but were simply preemptive, aimed at crippling it.

At the same time, Israel has cynically positioned itself as a “protector” of Syria’s minority groups—particularly the Druze and Kurds—which critics view as a pretext to extend its influence and presence in the country.

Indeed, it has already seized the Golan Heights buffer zone and encroached even further into Syria’s southern provinces of Quneitra, Dara’a and Sweida, where it is demanding the complete demilitarisation and disarmament of armed groups. The Israeli army is patrolling and raiding villages and towns in the surrounding areas and even reportedly attacked and killed civilians there.

If Türkiye's military buildup in Syria is to protect it against Israeli intervention, it could be inviting a dangerous conflict to its doorstep

Turkish goals

For its part, Türkiye is trying to strengthen Syria via its influence with the new government in Damascus. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa have already agreed to defence cooperation during the latter's visit to Ankara in February, whereby Türkiye will help build and train its army. It is also said to be preparing to establish military bases and deploy fighter jets, UCAVs/UAVs and air defence systems in Syria—although there has been no official confirmation by the Turkish government.

Elements of the Turkish armed forces are already in Syria where they are fighting the YPG/PKK—so the bases in question could very well be aimed at bolstering these ongoing military operations or even preventing a resurgence of the Islamic State (IS) either on its own or part of an international or regional coalition. Foreign ministers of Jordan, Syria, Türkiye, Lebanon and Iraq met in Amman in March and agreed to set up an operations room to help exchange information and plan action against IS.

However, if the aim is to protect Syria against Israeli intervention, Türkiye could be inviting a dangerous conflict to its doorstep. For his part, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz directly threatened al-Sharaa, warning: "If you allow hostile forces (meaning Türkiye) to enter and threaten Israel's security interests, Syria will pay a heavy price".

Indeed, the air bases hit by Israel in the past few days have been the T4 base and others in Homs and Hama—some of which are said to have been allocated to Türkiye. Israeli and other foreign media say the strikes were meant as a warning to Türkiye, quoting unnamed Israeli officials.

Three Turkish engineers were allegedly killed in recent Israeli air strikes. If true, this marks a grave development.

Grave development

Three Turkish engineers were allegedly killed in the recent Israeli air strikes, although there hasn't been any official confirmation. If true, it marks a grave development. For its part, Türkiye has repeatedly emphasised that it is not looking for a confrontation with Israel, last emphasised a few days ago by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Nonethless, Tel Aviv views Türkiye as a threat—the same way it views Iran.

On Friday, an unnamed Israeli official said that Israel was also "not looking for a conflict with Türkiye, and we hope that it is not looking for a conflict with us, but we also do not want to see Turkish entrenchment on our border, and there are all kinds of ways to handle this."

In the case of direct confrontation—even if limited and brief—both sides stand to suffer, especially on the economic front. And as President Erdoğan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu face growing domestic turmoil at home, they could also use any conflagration as a pretext to implement state of emergency measures.

It remains to be seen if recent developments will mushroom into a bigger confrontation and whether the United States would step in and mediate between its closest ally (Israel) and its NATO ally (Türkiye) if the two sides end up butting heads in Syria. However, the road ahead remains strewn with challenges and uncertainty.

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