Between Trump and the EU, Britain feels increasingly isolated

Geopolitical positions also favour closer ties. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 underlined the need for Britain and Europe to boost security ties irrespective of Brexit, while London shares a growing suspicion of China with most EU leaders.

The return of Trump and his threats of raising tariffs on allies and annexing Greenland, an EU member's territory, has further incentivised Europeans to improve ties with London to align it closer to Brussels.

But while relations may become warmer, they will likely remain a shadow of pre-2016 ties. Opinion polls show a majority of Britons now believe Brexit was a mistake, and, according to a recent YouGov poll, even among Leave voters, fewer than half can point to positive results. Despite this, Labour remains fearful that if they grow too close to the EU, it could lose voters to the Conservatives or Nigel Farage's insurgent Reform party, both of which have been quick to accuse Starmer of 'betraying Brexit.'

This boxes Downing Street in somewhat. Starmer pledged during the 2024 election not to rejoin the EU, its single market or its customs union and to prevent the return of free movement between UK and EU citizens. Instead, Labour hopes improved ties with Brussels will facilitate revisions to the 2020 trade agreement, which has led to the UK's goods exports and the EU dropping by 6.4% since it came into force, according to a new London School of Economics report. However, the same problems Starmer faced as his Conservative predecessors when they were negotiating Britain's exit in 2016-20 were that the EU fundamentally opposed any 'cherry picking' of the single market.

No amount of goodwill is likely to change this, and though the UK may be able to make minor advances in a few specific sectors, such as veterinary alignment on food, this is unlikely to deliver the economic boost that Labour hopes for. There is more chance of closer security alignment, especially given the shared views of Russia and Ukraine. However, this will have little impact on the economic growth Starmer craves. It is also questionable how much leverage it will give the UK with the EU or whether it actually enhances London's tenuous international position.

Trump's America

Since the collapse of its Empire, Britain has sought to position itself between its two main allies: Europe and the US. Its economic focus has been on Brussels, but its security priorities have been with Washington. Britons, though, have often been ambivalent about both relationships, and there have long been policymakers who favour getting closer to one at the other's expense. Brexit prompted some to urge greater alignment with the US, but Trump's election in 2016 complicated this agenda, and so has his return. 

Economically, some Brexiters wanted freedom from the EU to pave the way for a free trade agreement with the US, and though Trump flirted with the idea in his first term, it never got off the ground before Biden's election diminished prospects further.

While a US trade agreement was mostly a Conservative policy, Labour might consider it too, but Trump's agenda seems more aimed at improving the balance of US trade, making a palatable deal to London even less likely. Moreover, Starmer's immediate concern is to ensure London doesn't get included in any tariffs that the White House is threatening to place on its allies.

He also wishes to ensure that the close security relationship between Washington and London persists. Even before Trump's election, Starmer committed to raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP and urged NATO allies to do likewise, something that should play well with Trump.

However, Downing Street is deeply aware of the importance of building personal relationships. Starmer made a point of meeting Trump for a two-hour dinner in New York in September, months before the US election, while Foreign Secretary David Lammy's team made concerted efforts to build ties with Trump in case of a Republican victory. Given their considerable ideological differences, this is a perilous path, as already seen by Trump ally Elon Musk's scathing criticism of Starmer and reports that he has explored how to oust the UK premier.

That said, Trump himself has thus far remained cordial towards Starmer, stating after a 45-minute phone conversation last week that they had a "very good relationship" and that Starmer had done a "very good job so far." Starmer will hope that, like Tony Blair and George Bush, their different positions on the political spectrum won't prevent a strong diplomatic relationship.

Perilous path

But Donald Trump is not George Bush, and his unpredictability makes it too risky for Starmer to fully align with Trump. Domestically, he will face a backlash from his left-wing or liberal supporters if he's seen to endorse some of Trump's right-wing impulses. Internationally, sudden acts of aggression, such as threatening Panama and Greenland or raising tariffs on allies, whether the UK is included, will prove near impossible for Starmer to accept.

Yet, with bonds with the EU severely weakened and a long way from repair, Britain will find it much harder to take any kind of stand against Trump for fear of being isolated. Though Starmer has different priorities and approaches to his Conservative predecessors, he remains at the same structural disadvantage that Britain has faced since Brexit: between Europe and the US, but not firmly with either.

In an era of increased competition, both military and economic, that's a risky place to be. Starmer will try his best to navigate such choppy waters as he can, but it will be a challenge.