Trump is no fan of war but will use force if necessary

Putin put on notice

One of the more eye-catching claims Trump made during the presidential election claim was that he intended to end the Ukraine conflict within "24 hours" of taking office, an ambition which, while totally unrealistic, nevertheless indicated his likely direction of travel.

By way of introducing his likely approach to global security issues, one of Trump's first major interventions has been to send a blunt warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin of the potentially disastrous consequences he will face if he does not end the war in Ukraine. In a post on his Truth Social website, Trump this week called on Putin to "stop this ridiculous war" or face a fresh round of tariffs and sanctions.

"I'm going to do Russia, whose economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOUR." Trump posted. "Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don't make a 'deal,' and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States and various other participating countries."

In a pointed message to Putin, Mr Trump added: "We can do it the easy way, or the hard way – and the easy way is always better." While the language used in the warning was classic Trump, it also indicated how his administration is likely to tackle future adversaries, with an emphasis on implementing crippling economic and financial measures rather than resorting to brute military force.

Sanctions as a first resort

It is a policy that largely defined Trump's first presidential term, where he often resorted to imposing crippling sanctions against states like Iran rather than engaging in direct military confrontation.

One example of this came in 2019 when Iran shot down a US surveillance drone operating over the Gulf. While many members of Trump's national security team argued in favour of responding to Iranian provocation with an overwhelming military response, Trump refused to sanction the attack, arguing that he did not want to start a costly war with Tehran. Instead, he piled on more economic sanctions and authorised the targeted assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the elite Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

But while Trump remained loyal to his commitment not to involve the US in any unnecessary military interventions during his first term in office, he was also prepared to authorise powerful displays of America's military might when required. In 2017, for example, he dispatched a powerful US Navy armada to the Korean peninsula as a warning to North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un over North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programmes.

Trump also played a leading role during his term in the military campaign to destroy the Islamic State's so-called Caliphate in Syria, where his decision to ease the burdensome rules of engagement introduced by the previous Obama administration played a key role in achieving a successful outcome.

The China test

There have been many changes to the global security landscape since Trump was last in office, not least Russia's invasion of Ukraine and concerns that China might be planning a military assault against Taiwan.

While ending the Ukraine conflict may be one of Trump's first priorities, the challenge posed by China's emergence as a major military power is likely to be of more concern, as it poses a direct threat to US interests in the Pacific. Judging by his initial intervention on the Ukraine issue, Trump's most likely course of action in the event of escalating tensions with Beijing would be to respond with a range of hard-hitting measures, such as tariffs and sanctions.

The big question, though, is how Trump would respond if Beijing did press ahead with its attempts to reclaim Taiwan through military force—a move that would have profound implications for the security of both the US and its allies in the Pacific region.

China's Communist rulers will be aware that, as a last resort, the Trump administration's preferred policy of peace through force approach also means that, in times of genuine crisis, the US will not be afraid to demonstrate its overwhelming military might.