The war in Gaza appears to be over, or at least paused, for now. A ceasefire announcement expected later today, according to US officials, will trigger the release of some Israeli hostages and a gradual redeployment of troops from Gaza. Negotiators have laboured over the ceasefire deal for many months without success. It appears similar to proposals that were put forward last year, so what allowed it to succeed now?
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel that resulted in the deaths of more than 1,200 Israelis and another 250 being taken as hostages. Afterwards, Israel launched a ferocious military campaign that killed more than 46,000 Palestinians in Gaza and devastated most of the Gaza Strip.
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Both Israel and Hamas hesitated to end the conflict, even as the suffering of civilians in Gaza mounted. Hamas feared that a temporary pause in fighting in exchange for a hostage release, as opposed to a permanent ceasefire, would simply lead Israel to redouble its campaign once its own people were out of harm’s way.
Israel, for its part, expressed its desire that the militant group be destroyed completely. Aside from this sweeping demand, Israel wanted more hostages released and to keep a lasting military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, along the border between Gaza and Egypt, among other demands. US officials, along with negotiators from Qatar and Egypt, tried repeatedly to bridge these differences.
On the Hamas side, the logic of a ceasefire is straightforward: The organisation is devastated. Israel claims that it has killed 17,000 Hamas fighters, destroyed much (though probably not a majority) of Hamas’s tunnel network and other infrastructure, and killed many of Hamas’s senior leaders. This is not an empty boast: Since October 7, Israel has killed numerous Hamas leaders, both in Gaza and outside it, including Ismail Haniyeh, its top leader; Mohammed Deif, its military chief; and Yahya Sinwar, the leader and architect of the October 7 operation who briefly replaced Haniyeh as head of Hamas.
Aside from these losses, Hamas’s popularity is falling. Gaza is in ruins, and most Palestinians in Gaza, who once supported the attack on Israel, now consider it a mistake. Its ally Hezbollah has dropped out of the war after suffering its own set of devastating losses from Israeli attacks, and Iran is also licking its wounds. With Israeli troops killing mid-level Hamas leaders, as well as its rank and file, the group could not rebuild.
For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, ending the war has proven politically difficult. Netanyahu’s extreme right-wing coalition has favoured an unbending policy toward Hamas, seeking its utter destruction. Netanyahu has embraced this line, but what it means in practice is unclear. His cabinet must still approve the deal.
Despite inflicting repeated blows on Hamas, Israel has done nothing to ensure that there is a successor to Hamas in Gaza that can displace it in the long term. As a result, the group may slowly regenerate, regaining at least some influence in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s own political difficulties—he is currently on trial for corruption—put him in a vulnerable position, increasing the risk of any move that his coalition members do not support. Moreover, with a ceasefire, there will be a reckoning for the failures of October 7 itself, including Netanyahu’s own role in allowing Hamas to build up and prioritising other theatres over Gaza. No longer can Netanyahu deflect calls for an investigative commission into the attack by saying that the country is at war.
Israel, however, is also exhausted by war, and the Gaza operations have, for many months now, been yielding diminishing returns. Yoav Gallant, Israel’s former defence minister, admitted months ago that Israel no longer had any real military mission in Gaza. Killing yet another mid-level Hamas leader or cluster of Hamas fighters matters little in terms of the organisation’s strength.
Read more: Is the war in Gaza turning Israel into a pariah state?
Meanwhile, the international outrage Israel has faced, including declining support among young people and Democrats in the United States, may have long-term costs for Israel.
Israeli public opinion favours a deal to release the hostages, and the military, which depends heavily on reserves, is exhausted by over a year of hard fighting.
Although the deal has long been in the cards and probably would have occurred sooner had Vice President Kamala Harris won the 2024 US presidential election, timing it for a new administration also weighs on Israeli calculations. Biden administration officials can, and will claim, that their efforts ended a bloody war that tarnished the outgoing president’s legacy among many Democrats.
However, even if the ceasefire reflects the months of negotiations and constant proposals put forward by Biden officials, credit will go to President-elect Donald Trump. Politically, the deal enables Israel to score points with the new administration, which had promised to end the war upon taking office.
Trump threatened that “all hell will break out in the Middle East” if Hamas does not release its hostages—what that meant in practice was unclear, but it certainly sounded scary. He also put significant pressure on Netanyahu to accept a deal, according to Israeli news reports.
