The struggle for Syria from afar and from within

With five foreign militaries on Syrian territory and the risk of division within the country, the new leaders in Damascus are treading a fine line

The struggle for Syria from afar and from within

Bashar al-Assad has become a figure of the past, and the Assad family now stands in the court of history. Brutality cannot halt the march of time. History always has and always will deliver its judgments. People may be oppressed, but they cannot be defeated. Ultimately, they prevail against tyrants.

The fall of the regime was inevitable, but Syria remains a precious gift carried by its people from the end of 2024 into the dawn of 2025. The weeks that have passed since Assad’s escape and the collapse of his regime following 11 days that shook Syria and the region have felt like an eternity to Syrians.

The pain from seeing Assad’s prisons—including the dank innards of the “human slaughterhouse” that was Saydnaya—remains heavy. The jubilation of millions celebrating in Syria’s squares echoed with relief.

To the next phase

With the ‘Republic of Captagon’ (in reference to the drug Assad’s cronies produced by the million) now at an end, Syrians can address the huge and pressing challenges they face, especially those left by the old regime.

New leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has said the core principle is that, after the Syrian revolution triumphed, Syria should not be governed with a revolutionary mindset. Instead, it must adopt a state-centric approach.

Another foundational principle is for Syrians to reclaim their decision-making power and Syria’s sovereignty. But it must do so amidst fierce international struggles and shifting regional dynamics.

For our January 2025 cover story, Al Majalla chose the theme: ‘The Struggle for Syria.’ This title is inspired by the first book of the late British author Patrick Seale, in which he encapsulated how Syria became a battleground for Arab and foreign influence.

Seale later wrote a second book praising Hafez al-Assad, titled Assad: The Struggle for the Middle East. Both eras have now concluded. Syria has transitioned from player to playing field, home to five foreign militaries: the US in the north-east, Russia and Iran in the centre and west, Türkiye in the north, and Israel in the south.

Establishing a footing

Al-Sharaa’s statements make it clear that he opposes the division of Syria, which is entering a new phase, where the struggle both ‘for’ and ‘within’ the country intensifies. This comprehensive report delves into all aspects, featuring insights from experts and journalists, who have analysed the angles, not least from Tehran.

Iran and its militias have suffered strategic losses in Syria and Lebanon, leading to the collapse of the ‘Axis of Resistance.’ Today, it is striving to solidify its presence in Iraq. Russia, meanwhile, has lost its footing in Syria, but seeks to secure the future of its two military bases in Tartus and Latakia—key to its projected influence in the Middle East.

Syrians must reclaim their decision-making power and sovereignty amidst fierce international struggles and shifting regional dynamics

Türkiye has emerged as a major beneficiary of recent developments, leveraging its alliance with the new Syrian leadership. This strategic relationship, initiated in 2011, helped Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and various factions to victory across Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus. 

A notable milestone came in mid-December when a Turkish security and political delegation visited Damascus, marking the first foreign mission to engage with the new leadership since the fall of Assad and the rise of al-Sharaa. Türkiye has pledged substantial military support to help stabilise the new regime.

The US and Israel

As for the US, its presence in north-eastern Syria is entering a new phase, not least because Washington and Baghdad have agreed that the American withdrawal from Iraq will begin in September 2025, when Donald Trump will be in power. 

He is famously opposed to US military interventions abroad unless absolutely necessary, and the new Syrian government has rejected any US presence and the military support it provides Kurdish forces based in the country. 

Meanwhile, across Syria, Israel has been highly active, intensifying its strikes on Iranian and Hezbollah positions. Documents uncovered after Assad fled have revealed covert coordination between his regime and Tel Aviv. 

After the regime collapsed, Israel systematically destroyed Syrian military assets, including missiles, aircraft, boats, and research centres. It further consolidated its position by seizing the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and took control of monitoring posts on Mount Hermon—a strategic vantage point overlooking Damascus. 

Needing to win again

The next major battle for governance in Syria lies in reclaiming sovereignty and decision-making power in a complex landscape with multiple armed factions, among them HTS and its allies, the Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the north-east, and remnants of the regime along the coast. 

Interim rulers have prioritised the disbanding of these factions and the establishment of a new national army, alongside the appointment of defence and foreign ministers, but in Syria today, external and internal forces intersect. Foreign armies and local factions clash, while victors and losers compete. 

This troubling scenario is a recipe for renewed conflict in and over Syria, so future victories must include the avoidance of confrontation and the prevention of division.

In addition to its January 2025 cover story, this issue features a special spotlight on Trump's anticipated policies for the year ahead, along with a diverse range of articles, analysis, and interviews offering in-depth coverage of topics spanning politics, economics, science, and culture.

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