French government collapse comes at inopportune time

At a time when Beijing and Moscow show strength, key democracies like France, Germany and South Korea find themselves consumed by internal strife, hurting their ability to confront autocratic states

French government collapse comes at inopportune time

At a time when there is a pressing need for the world’s leading democracies to demonstrate a shared sense of purpose, the dramatic collapse of the French government will only add to the perception that they are ill-equipped to confront future challenges.

The growing challenge of powerful autocratic regimes in Moscow and Beijing presents a new and significant threat to the pre-eminence in world affairs that leading democracies have enjoyed since the end of the Cold War.

Yet, rather than demonstrating the resolve required to maintain the established world order, recent political developments suggest that many democratic governments are too consumed by domestic events to present a unified front against the challenges that lie ahead.

In the US, Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House has raised concerns that Washington will become more isolationist, especially in terms of its dealings with its Western allies. There is even talk of Trump withdrawing the US from the NATO alliance—a move that could have profound implications for Europe’s ability to defend itself against future threats.

Inward shift

Trump’s return to the White House, moreover, comes at a time when Europe’s major powers are experiencing severe bouts of political instability themselves, meaning that their focus is more directed towards domestic issues than the broader challenge of European security.

The collapse of Germany’s coalition government last month means that, rather than concentrating its efforts on the Ukraine crisis, Berlin’s focus will now be on next year’s general election, with expectations that Germany’s far-right AfD party will make strong gains.

Widely regarded as the major powers within the EU, France and Germany are now beset by domestic crises that restrict their ability to influence world affairs

And the political crisis in France, which has resulted in the collapse of the French government, means that the two countries that are widely regarded as the major powers within the European Union are now beset by domestic crises that will severely compromise their ability to exert their influence in world affairs.

The fall of the French government is of particular concern given that the French military is the most powerful force within the EU, especially as France is the only EU-member state to possess nuclear weapons.

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's decision to offer his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron came after his administration lost a no-confidence vote which was brought by opposition politicians from both the Right and Left over Barnier's budget proposals.

Following a heated debate in France's National Assembly, a total of 331 of France's 577 lawmakers voted in favour of ousting Barnier after he tried to force through an austere budget to fix the country's yawning deficits. The vote of no confidence means that Barnier will become the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic and the first to be forced out by the French parliament since 1962.

Barnier's removal means that Macron finds himself plunged into an even greater political crisis as he struggles to find an effective replacement, one who can address France's deepening financial crisis.

Shockwaves across the eurozone

France's political and economic crisis has already sent shock waves across the eurozone, with fears that the parlous state of the French economy could result in the country suffering a sovereign debt crisis, with all the implications that could have for the economic stability of the eurozone. The European Central Bank, the guardian of the euro currency, is reported to be already drawing up emergency measures to intervene if the French government finds itself unable to keep borrowing costs down.

Following the collapse of the government, unions called for nationwide strikes and demonstrations, which could bring the country to a standstill

The prospect of France suffering even greater political turmoil remains acute after unions responded to the collapse of the government by calling for strikes and street demonstrations to take place across the country, which could bring the country to a standstill.

With both Germany and France struggling to deal with internal political turmoil, questions will certainly be raised about the ability of Europe's major powers to demonstrate solidarity in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine.

The parlous political situation in Europe, moreover, has not been helped by the political unrest that has suddenly erupted in South Korea, where Seoul is regarded as a key bulwark in efforts to contain the threat posed by Communist China.

The crisis was sparked after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's aborted attempt to declare martial law, a move that was blocked after South Korean politicians voted unanimously to block the move.

The president claimed that martial law was necessary to protect the country from "North Korea's communist forces" and to "eliminate anti-state elements". Opposition politicians have responded by commencing impeachment proceedings against Yoon, meaning that the country's political crisis will continue for some time.

Mounting challenge 

Taken together, this disparate array of political challenges facing some of the world's leading democracies raises serious questions about their ability to withstand the mounting challenge by autocratic states such as Russia and China, which, when compared with the instability affecting democracies, have a clear sense of purpose.

Unlike the instability affecting democracies, Russia and China appear to have a clear sense of purpose

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin makes no secret of his desire to expand Russian influence throughout territories the Kremlin has long-regarded as its "near abroad"—which includes Ukraine—even if it means risking a confrontation with the West.

Similarly, Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to expand Beijing's dominance of the Pacific region, with concerns that China is determined to reclaim control over Taiwan—a move that could provoke a direct conflict with the US.

Add to this troubling picture the threat posed by the likes of Iran and North Korea, and it is clear that democratic governments need to demonstrate resolve and unity of purpose if they are to prevail against the challenge posed by these autocracies.

As the head of Britain's Armed Forces, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, warned in a major policy speech in London this week, the world is now facing a "third nuclear age", with the stability achieved in the wake of the Cold War now at an end.

Under these circumstances, democratic states can no longer afford the luxury of indulging in their own political navel-gazing, given the scale of the threat the newly emerging powers pose to the established world order.

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