The Lebanese army has already accused Israel of violating the ceasefire “several times” since it went into effect on Wednesday morning after more than 13 months of hostilities with Hezbollah. “The Israeli enemy violated the deal several times,” the army said, citing air strikes and attacks on Lebanese territory with “various weapons.”
For its part, Hezbollah said that the Israeli army had fired on civilians, denying the army's earlier assertion that it had detected Hezbollah activity at an alleged rocket storage facility.
The ceasefire agreement struck between Israel and Lebanon this week may have succeeded in ending hostilities in the short term, but there are no guarantees that it will ultimately lead to a lasting resolution of the conflict.
Under the terms of the deal agreed this week, which is aimed at ending 13 months of hostilities between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia, Hezbollah has been given 60 days to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon, while Israeli forces must withdraw from the area over the same period.
Announcing the ceasefire, the US and France, which helped broker the agreement, said it would “cease the fighting in Lebanon and secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and other terrorist organisations operating from Lebanon”.
Hopes, moreover, that the deal could lead to a more permanent resolution of the conflict were reflected in comments made by US President Joe Biden that the 13-point agreement is “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”
The new agreement effectively replicates UN resolution 1701, which ended the last major bout of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, and requires that Hezbollah pull back its force north of the Litani River—and the Lebanese army step in—while Israel must undertake to stop flying over Lebanese airspace.
Whether these objectives are ultimately fulfilled, though, will depend to a large extent on how the various parties involved in the conflict respond to the ceasefire.
This is particularly the case regarding Hezbollah, which was not a signatory to the agreement which was ostensibly struck between the governments of Israel and Lebanon.
This means that it is the Lebanese government—and not Hezbollah—that has ultimate responsibility for securing the country’s southern border and preventing southern Lebanon from once again becoming a launch pad for Hezbollah to attack northern Israel.
A big ask
This is a big ask for the Lebanese security forces, which, historically, have struggled to contain Hezbollah’s superior firepower, much of which has been provided by its key ally, Iran.
The ceasefire deal states that the Lebanese government must "prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any operations against Israel".
