What a flurry of Iran-Syria visits says about Assad's next move

Israel's determination to disrupt Hezbollah's supply lines through Syria, combined with the prospect of political and economic incentives for breaking with Tehran, has fuelled speculation about a potential realignment. Such arguments gained momentum amid reports of increasing tensions between al-Assad and Iran in recent months.

Projecting unity

The recent flurry of visits, however, complicates this narrative. The rapid succession of meetings and their mutual nature suggest more than mere damage control. Instead, they reflect a calculated effort by both sides to project unity and recalibrate their relationship.

Statements from the meetings underscored this intent. Iranian officials reaffirmed Syria's central role in the "axis of resistance" and pledged continued support. Meanwhile, al-Assad likely used the opportunity to request increased economic aid—a lifeline his cash-strapped regime desperately needs to maintain power.

While these exchanges reinforce a sense of continuity, they also highlight al-Assad's balancing act. Publicly aligned with Tehran, al-Assad privately signals a willingness to engage with actors seeking to weaken Iran's influence. Well-informed diplomatic sources pointed out that the regime has repeatedly cited its refusal to enter a direct confrontation with Israel as evidence of a strategic distancing from Tehran.

Strategic maneouvering

Its officials have also hinted that deeper moves in this direction would require external support to offset the risks, particularly given al-Assad's heavy dependence on Iranian financial aid and fuel supplies. These private talks aim to allow al-Assad to secure potential benefits without committing to meaningful concessions.

To bolster his negotiating position, al-Assad might even signal a willingness to limit Iran's arms shipments to Hezbollah through Syria—a condition likely to emerge in any deal aimed at ending Israel's war on Lebanon. Such a move could be framed as an additional indication of disengagement from the Iran-led axis. However, it would almost certainly remain a low-risk manoeuvre.

Even if such a deal were to be brokered, al-Assad is unlikely to enforce it. The regime could easily feign ignorance, citing weak state control to justify continued arms shipments—a tactic it has already used to explain rampant drug trafficking from Syria. Paradoxically, al-Assad might even be able to leverage these illicit activities to argue for further support, claiming that empowering his regime is the only way to curb such operations.

This calculated duplicity underscores al-Assad's long-standing strategy of leveraging all sides while making minimal compromises, if any. Time and again, he has secured concessions without delivering significant changes. Whether he can continue eating his cake and having it, too, depends on how long his allies and adversaries are willing to tolerate his manoeuvres.