Trump win galvanises Western support for Ukraine war effort

Although Trump's public declarations have often been highly critical of what he calls the Biden administration's open-ended support for Ukraine, which has so far cost the American taxpayer in excess of $100bn, he has been less vocal in condemning Biden's recent decision to allow Ukraine to use US-donated longe-range missiles to strike targets on Russian soil.

With less than two months to go before he leaves the White House, Biden is doubling down on Washington's support for Ukraine. Apart from belatedly authorising the use of the US Army's long-range ATCMS missile systems for use against military targets located on Russian soil, the White House is also providing significant quantities of anti-personnel mines, which the Ukrainians desperately need to thwart the Russian military's offensive in eastern Ukraine.

In addition, the US Defence Department announced it was providing an additional security assistance package worth $275mn under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) programme. Defence officials said the package will provide Ukraine with "additional capabilities to meet its most urgent needs, including munitions for rocket systems and artillery and anti-tank weapons.

"The United States will continue to work together with some 50 allies and partners through the Ukraine Defence Contact Group and its associated Capability Coalitions to meet Ukraine's urgently needed battlefield requirements and defend against Russian aggression," it said.

Cascade of support

The sudden intensification of US support for Ukraine ahead of Trump taking office has also resulted in other Western nations increasing their military contribution after the conflict passed the 1,000-day mark this week.

The UK Government responded to the Biden administration's decision to relax the restrictions on the use of the ATCMS missile systems by granting similar permissions on the use of UK-donated Storm Shadow long-range missiles.

The Ukrainians' desperate need for such weapons to disrupt Russia's military advance was evident from the fact that, within days of the restrictions being lifted, Ukraine forces used both ATCMS missiles and Storm Shadows to attack military targets in Russia.

In addition, the Dutch Defence Ministry—which has been at the forefront of efforts to provide Ukraine with warplanes—said the Netherlands had handed over the final two of 18 promised US-made F-16 fighter warplanes to a Romania training base, where Ukrainian pilots and staff are being taught to fly and maintain the jets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in the past, has hailed the delivery of the warplanes as he pressed allies to step up aid to his country's stretched military.

Meanwhile, the German government announced it had sent a package of military aid to Ukraine, including armoured vehicles, artillery, and drones. Berlin is the second-largest foreign supplier of military aid to Ukraine after the US since February 2022, providing €28bn ($29.5bn) to Kyiv.

The primary aim of this sudden upsurge in Western support for Ukraine is to ensure that—if the incoming Trump administration fulfils its pledge to end the conflict—the Ukrainians will be in the strongest position possible when they come to the negotiating table. Apart from resisting Russian attempts to occupy more territory in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainians are keen to maintain their hold over Russian territory in the Kursk region that their forces captured during a lightning offensive in August.

Any Russian territory that the Ukrainians can occupy ahead of future negotiations can be used as a bargaining chip to persuade the Russians to hand over territory they have seized in Ukraine. It is for this reason that many of the long-range missile attacks Ukrainian forces have conducted since the US and its allies lifted their restrictions have been directed at Russian bases being used to support Russia's counter-offensive in Kursk.

The fact, moreover, that Trump and his key national security team have largely remained silent over this increase in Western support for Ukraine suggests that the president-elect is not entirely unhappy at the prospect of Kyiv turning the tide of the war in its favour.

If the Ukrainians are able to strengthen their position on the battlefield ahead of any peace negotiations that might take place next year, then that would give Trump a stronger hand to play in any deal he strikes with Putin to end the war.