There are obstacles to Donald Trump’s attempts to reverse progress
CHIP SOMODEVILLA/AFP
US Presidential nominee Donald Trump and Republican US Representative from New York, Lee Zeldin, at the Drexelbrook Catering & Event Center on October 29, 2024, in Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania.
“It is clear the next administration will try to do a U-turn and reverse much of this progress,” declared John Podesta, America’s climate tsar, at a UN climate summit held this week in Azerbaijan. His statement to the gathered greens and diplomats acknowledged a shared anxiety. Donald Trump has vowed to yank America out of the UN’s Paris climate agreement for a second time. Meanwhile, conservative energy wonks around Mr Trump want him to make a push in three areas.
They want to kill international cooperation and impose hefty tariffs on green imports. They aim to slash environmental protections to boost carbon-intensive industries. They are especially keen to gut Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Yet, despite the fact that Mr Trump will enjoy a trifecta from January, the brown revolution faces some obstacles.
America’s exit from the Paris agreement seems certain, but Robert Stavins of Harvard University argues this will not derail global climate action. Britain has already offered to lead diplomacy in America’s absence. Domestically, the first withdrawal galvanised a coalition of states, cities, and corporations, which was organised in part by Bloomberg Philanthropies, a charity. This is happening again. The “America is All In” coalition has its own pavilion in Baku.
Although the US will be oilier in the years ahead, the momentum behind clean energy and global climate action is resilient enough to withstand four more years of Trump
Green protectionism may falter, too. Manufacturing lobbies will resist supply-chain cost rises, and reports suggest that the transactional Mr Trump might drop tariffs on European goods in exchange for increased purchases of American liquefied natural gas (LNG). Chinese imports will face higher tariffs, but for the climate-concerned, there is a silver lining. Carlos Pascual of S&P Global, a research firm, argues that China will redirect exports of affordable clean-energy kits to developing countries instead. It does not matter to the planet where emissions cuts are made.
On deregulation, Mr Trump is on firmer ground. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, a think-tank, argues that the team "has experience and personnel this time and will get started faster". They will seek to ease rules on exhaust emissions from cars, weaken support for electric vehicles and loosen rules on carbon from power plants. The reversal of a controversial Biden pause on approvals of new projects to export LNG seems certain, too.
However, Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy, insists all this is unlikely to spur additional growth in hydrocarbon production soon. Oil and gas production already shot up to record levels under Mr Biden, and market forces are far more influential than the White House on energy-investment decisions.
An oil pump jack is shown in a field on June 28, 2024, in Nolan, Texas.
The IRA, which Mr Trump has denigrated as the "green new scam", is in the cross-hairs. Republicans will be looking for money to pay for the extension of the Trump tax cuts, and could use the budget reconciliation process to raid the IRA's funding. In theory, this could gut it. The expensive and clunky credits for electric vehicles, for example, are on the chopping block. A fee on methane emissions from hydrocarbon production, which raises revenue, is also facing extinction.
Interest groups will probably save most of the IRA, though. It has resulted in about $130bn in investment, with perhaps four-fifths going into Republican districts. Oil and gas companies and power utilities support its subsidies for hydrogen and carbon capture, and some conservatives like its funding of nuclear power, energy storage and sustainable aviation fuels. Lee Zeldin, a Republican former congressman, will head the Environmental Protection Agency. His voting record and membership of the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus suggest a degree of pragmatism.
America will be oilier in the years ahead than those gathered in Baku would like. Even so, the momentum behind domestic clean energy and global climate action is resilient enough to withstand four more years of Mr Trump.
