In Lebanon, where demographics are inseparable from politics, the displacement of more than a million people will always leave a lasting impact. Indeed, recent history shows this to be true. Waves of displacement and deportations since Israel first began attacking its northern neighbour in the 1970s have contributed to Lebanon’s destabilisation and disintegration, the repercussions hindering post-civil war reconstruction efforts.
Since September of this year, when Israel initiated its latest war by activating bombs inside the pagers of thousands of Hezbollah members, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese in areas with a strong Hezbollah presence have left their homes to seek refuge, both within and beyond Lebanon’s borders.
They join another 100,000 others who fled their villages in southern Lebanon after Israeli retaliation for Hezbollah’s so-called “Support War” for Gaza began in October 2023, triggered by Hamas attacking southern Israel and Israel launching a subsequent invasion. This plunged the region into a new phase of intense upheaval.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has tracked the swelling number of displaced people in Lebanon, which totalled 1.2 million as of mid-October. These numbers add to the one million Syrian refugees living in Lebanon since 2011 and the generations of Palestinian refugees, compounding the severity of the crisis.
Risking sectarian violence
Lebanon’s small size, its overpopulation, and its limited natural resources mean that demographic shifts often fuel sectarian tensions, raising the risk of sectarian clashes. For a country whose economy collapsed so completely five years ago, a new refugee influx is a pending disaster of daunting proportions.
Relocating 1.2 million Lebanese to areas with different sectarian majorities presents challenges. In non-Shiite areas, there is animosity towards Hezbollah, whose supporters are among the displaced. The group’s influence remains divisive in communities that see it as a threat to their autonomy and security.
The most hardline voices in groups affected by Hezbollah's growing influence even threatened to refuse to host displaced southerners. For them, Hezbollah's military presence in the south triggered conflict with Israel, especially as recent years have seen Iran's allies and proxies increasingly coordinate.
Despite the initial threats, in their time of need, displaced Lebanese have been able to find shelter across different regions, with communities outside Israeli target areas largely offering refuge. Although isolated incidents and skirmishes have been reported, so far, there has not been the major unrest many feared.
Longstanding grievances
Tracing Lebanon's history of displacement, the emergence of the Dahiyeh—the southern suburbs of Beirut and a Shiite stronghold—is crucial. Its transformation from the hub of Lebanese leftist movements in the 1970s to a base camp for groups like Amal and Hezbollah would not have been possible without the civil war.
Read more: A walk through Dahiyeh shows why residents call it ‘the second Nakba’
The conflict uprooted residents from eastern and northern Beirut—once known as "the belt of misery"—driving them to relocate to the Dahiyeh. Many came in search of jobs and housing, fleeing the Bekaa Valley and the southern villages under attack from Israel. The state's long-standing neglect of these areas fostered grievances that predate the armed Palestinian presence in southern Lebanon in the late 1960s.
