BRICS 2024: New members and old challenges

While the Kazan Summit can claim some successes, diverging agendas make the search for the soul of the Global South more challenging

Russian President Vladimir Putin and participants in the outreach/BRICS Plus format meeting attend a family photo during the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 24, 2024.
MAXIM SHIPENKOV / AFP
Russian President Vladimir Putin and participants in the outreach/BRICS Plus format meeting attend a family photo during the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 24, 2024.

BRICS 2024: New members and old challenges

The BRICS+ Summit in Kazan is a testament to an emerging multipolar order and is symptomatic of growing discontent among some emerging powers with the global financial order.

This year's summit, however, also revealed a lack of consensus on key issues and little or no cohesive political vision. The BRICS group already struggled with a common vision and identity even before the four new members—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates—joined. The addition of these four—and possibly Saudi Arabia later—will ensure that the multilateral group will continue to struggle for an identity.

On broad issues like trade facilitation and foreign investment, agreements will be easier to achieve than on geopolitical stances or reactions to the dollar. Trying to create a "Global South view" of the world will likely fail, but as a convening forum, it will be a useful gathering point and may even score some diplomatic breakthroughs.

Russia hosted the BRICS+ Summit in Kazan from 22 to 24 October, welcoming leaders from 36 countries. The gathering marked the largest foreign policy event Russia has ever hosted. It was also the first summit since the group's expansion, bringing the total membership to nine.

AFP
The presidents of Egypt, South Africa, China, Russia, UAE, and Iran, the prime ministers of Ethiopia and India and Brazil's foreign minister pose for a family photo during the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 23, 2024.

Putin’s plans

For Russian President Vladamir Putin, the summit was an opportunity to demonstrate that Russia is not isolated in the wake of the war in Ukraine. In that respect, the summit achieved some gains.

Read more: BRICS Summit: A diplomatic coup for Putin but light on detail

Reeling under sanctions, Putin also sought to tap into discontent among rising middle powers with the exercise of the US’s financial power and the dominance of the dollar in world trade—in particular, the imposition of unilateral measures against countries it deems “non-compliant” or a threat to its interests. This is also a theme raised often by fellow BRICS member Brazil. It is also an issue of interest to heavily-sanctioned Iran. But Putin did not gain much traction on this issue, as it is not one that resonates with India, or newer members like the UAE and Egypt. Still, it should be expected that the dollar will be a frequent topic of future BRICS+ events.

Many middle powers, however, have gravitated towards the bloc in the wake of Western policy responses to the war in Gaza, which some view as a betrayal of the international rules-based order. There is deep disappointment in Washington’s refusal to pressure Israel for a ceasefire with Hamas, despite the Israeli army killing of over 43,000 Palestinians and its decimation of Gaza. On this issue, there was broader agreement.

Diverging agendas

The Kazan summit was certainly notable for bringing together leaders of middle powers. Presidents Xi Jinping, Cyril Ramaphosa, Abdel Fatah el-Sisi, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Mohammed bin Zayed—from China, South Africa, Egypt, Iran, and UAE, respectively—were in attendance; prime ministers Narendra Modi of India and Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia also participated, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan represented Saudi Arabia, though the Kingdom has yet to formally become a member. This is a notable achievement for a country heavily sanctioned by Western powers.

Increasingly, the world is paying attention to so-called middle powers and exploring the rise of the Global South. These are useful trends to follow, but given the broad socio-economic, geopolitical, and historical differences among countries of the BRICS+ and the Global South more broadly, it will be difficult to achieve common political agendas. Reaching common economic agendas around trade and foreign investment will be easier.

The Kazan Summit's mission, agenda and outcomes lacked an overall defining purpose

In general, the mission, agenda and outcomes lacked an overall defining purpose. The summit represented 45% of the world's population and 28% of global GDP, yet each member's motivation differed—a symptom of the historical transition underway from a unipolar to a multipolar world order. This shift has begun but is far from complete, which leaves US allies and opponents in uncertain territory. Among the allies and partners of the US, there is a desire to remain close to Washington and, simultaneously, to explore other options so that when the multipolar moment arrives, they face no major surprises or upheavals. There is also a general trend toward geopolitical diversification among middle powers and strategic multi-alignment, as well as an aversion to being forced into blocs by larger powers.

It is unsurprising, then, that the BRICS bloc lacks a central organising principle and suffers from poor cohesion. The Venn diagram of cooperation, characterised by allegiance to a major power or bloc since 1945, has grown more complex as states increasingly pursue issue-based diplomacy—allies can become adversaries depending on the topic at hand. For example, Russia and Saudi Arabia once backed different sides in Syria but co-operated on oil policy within OPEC+, and, more recently, Riyadh restored diplomatic relations with Syria. India and China still have border tensions, and Ethiopia, Egypt, and the UAE compete for influence in the Horn of Africa.

Putin's failed dollar gambit

Aside from bilateral issues between member states, BRICS has yet to resolve some of the major issues that will both define the group and serve as a measure of its success, the first among them being persistent disagreements over efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar.

While some member states tend to favour the use of local currencies to facilitate bilateral trade, Russia proposes replacing the reserve currency with the Chinese yuan. Most member states view a move away from the US dollar as detrimental to their interests; China is highly sceptical about the scope and ambition of such a project, and India has expressed outright disapproval.

AFP
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a family photo during the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 23, 2024.

BRICS members are also unenthusiastic about Putin's proposal at this year's Summit to establish a new payment mechanism, the "BRICS Bridge", using blockchain, tokens and digital currencies – not least because the US has threatened to impose sanctions on those funding or supplying Russia in its battle against Ukraine. Russia is intent on setting up an alternative tool to SWIFT and has been since last year's summit when the decision was first mooted; last week, it revealed on Russian television a prototype "BRICS currency". However, it seems most BRICS members are too closely linked with the US dollar to countenance such a move.

More BRICS in the wall?

There is also a lack of unanimity on whether to expand the group. Russia reports some 30 more countries, Malaysia, Turkey and Nicaragua among them, have expressed interest in joining. However, some member states, including India, Brazil, South Africa and the UAE, have expressed concern that adding members could signify to the US that BRICS is an anti-Western alliance.

South Africa is also reluctant to admit other African states, such as Morocco or Nigeria, believing they would dilute Pretoria's influence within the group. There are concerns, too, about additional complexities resulting from expanded membership, such as when countries harbouring long-term disputes, such as Egypt and Ethiopia, bring their struggles to the agenda.

Tangible "wins"

The issues the BRICS group faces, and which predate the "new joiners", over membership, an alternative reserve currency, and an electronic payments system to rival SWIFT, will continue to frustrate efforts at generating a cohesive organisation, shared mission and purposeful agenda. Furthermore, as a consensus-based forum, not a rules-based one, BRICS has little ability or authority to implement and enforce measures.

However, one bright spot is the scope of BRICS to facilitate dialogue between its members; for example, the Kazan Summit saw the first formal talks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in over five years. There could be diplomatic breakthroughs brewing behind the scenes of each summit.

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