Israel’s enemies saw dissent as weakness. They were wrong.

A thorough misreading of Israel’s internal squabbles has led to some catastrophic decisions, not least the decision by Hamas to attack on 7 October. It helps to ‘know thy enemy’, as Sun Tzu said.

Israel’s enemies saw dissent as weakness. They were wrong.

The internal political battles within Israel, waged by Israelis against Israelis, have often lulled Israel’s enemies into a false sense of hope. Leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah have been quick to pounce on problems in Israel, using them to justify escalation and attacks. Mohammed Deif’s speech announcing and explaining Hamas’s cross-border raid on 7 October 2023 is a prime example.

Of course, Israel has problems, not least since the current government—comprised of far-right religious nationalists and strictly Orthodox parties—began targeting Israel’s judiciary, trying to limit its independence and ability to render unlawful the ideologues’ unconstitutional plans.

Ministers like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who have a history of hatred towards the Palestinians, are driving an identity shift. They want Israel’s character to be Jewish and religious rather than secular and democratic. This is at odds with Israel’s Declaration of Independence, which declared that Israel “will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex”.

Israel’s divisions

Forcing such a fundamental shift has taken Israel to the brink of self-destruction, according to commentators like Prof. Ilan Pappe, leading to deep fractures in society—not least between the religious and the secular and between Arabs and Jews. These divisions have even impacted Israel’s military, a key societal melting pot owing to the compulsory national service (until now, the strictly Orthodox have been exempted from service, but politicians have voted to change that).

Yet news of these mass protests against judicial “reform” or of military reservists refusing to serve gave birth to misguided beliefs about Israel’s fragility, its inability to endure a prolonged war, or its refusal to accept significant losses. In other words, the voicing of dissent was mistaken for signs of the state’s weakness.

In fact, protests and Israelis’ insistence on their rights were signs of the state’s health. Alongside this misjudgement have been misleading assessments from the resistance. Phrases such as “our losses are tactical while Israel’s are strategic” have been voiced.

Dissent was mistaken for signs of the state's weakness, but Israeli protests were actually signs of the state's health

At the same time, claims that "Israel has not achieved its objectives" or that "the resistance is thriving" ring increasingly hollow. The resistance cannot be thriving if Hezbollah's entire leadership structure has been wiped out and if Palestinians in Gaza have suffered a brutal and ongoing Israeli campaign that has killed 43,000 and rendered much of the Strip rubble.

Mistaken identity

Israel's strengths—its robust political system, its management of human resources, the economy's resilience, and its technological superiority—seem to have been misread or disregarded by those who saw an opportunity in its squabbles.

When push comes to shove, when the State of Israel appears to be threatened, Israelis rally behind the flag and commit both resources and lives to beating the enemy, regardless of their political persuasion. It is not that Netanyahu is suddenly popular. Rather, the protesters know that their demonstrations can wait until safety is restored. 

Furthermore, those who would seek to find weaknesses in Israel often look past their own. The challenges and fractures within Lebanon and the Palestinian territories are myriad, encompassing economic, political, and societal issues. Israelis may fight one another, but their strategic management of limited resources has led to Israel becoming a regional power, even compared to the likes of Iran and Turkey.

Doubling down

Resistance leaders are guilty of stubbornness, arrogance, denial, and wishful thinking. This explains the vast gap between their aggressive anti-Israel rhetoric and their inability to hurt Israel or exploit its divisions. Nasrallah's threats to keep Israel on edge—made just a week before the Israelis killed him—perfectly illustrates the stark contrast between verbal bravado and real-life outcomes.

On 7 October, Israel showed itself to be vulnerable, but ever since, it has shown its military and intelligence capabilities, its willingness to cross red lines, and its confidence to continue fighting, given its international alliances.

Looking for weaknesses, resistance leaders have pointed to a personal rift between US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, but this has not diminished Israel's strategic partnership with the US, which has continued to offer unwavering political, military, and financial backing.

Recognising reality is crucial for any group or state to effectively navigate the complexities of the current situation. To make better decisions, the next generation of resistance leaders will need to have a more realistic read on their enemy.

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