India-Canada row boils over. This time, it's personal.

The simmering crisis had heated up since Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau travelled to New Delhi for the G20 summit in September 2023, when he reportedly confronted his counterpart, Narendra Modi, over the issue.

And Canada has only upped its accusations against India this past year. In a speech in the House of Commons, he alleged a "potential link between agents of the government of India" and the Nijjar killing. For its part, Canada's police force has flatly accused the Indian government of working with the crime network of Lawrence Bishnoi, a notorious 31-year-old gangster. Bishnoi, despite being in an Indian jail, was linked with the 2022 murder of Sidhu Moose Wala, a Punjabi singer, and the recent murder of Baba Siddique, a 66-year-old veteran politician, in Mumbai. His network is also suspected of involvement in the killing of 39-year-old Sukhdool Singh Gill, who was found dead in northwest Winnipeg in Canada on September 20 last year.

This time, it's personal

For its part, India has accused Canada of "concocting" allegations against Indian diplomats and saw them as part of "the political agenda of the Trudeau Government that is centred around vote bank politics."

India sees Trudeau as the main instigator of its troubled relationship with Canada, evidenced by recent statements released by India's foreign ministry.  Three consecutive statements were issued: The first revealed that India's ambassador and other diplomats had been named as "persons of interest" in an investigation in Canada. Within hours, the Canadian charge d'affaires in India was summoned to the ministry.

Soon after, another statement was issued, announcing the expulsion of Canadian diplomats, including the acting high commissioner, Stewart Ross Wheeler. When he emerged from the ministry, he told reporters: "Canada has provided credible, irrefutable evidence of ties between agents of the Government of India and the murder of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil".

"Now, it is time for India to live up to what it said it would do and look into those allegations. It is in the interest of both our countries and the people of our countries to get to the bottom of this. Canada stands ready to cooperate with India".

Hitting back, Trudeau said: "We will never tolerate the involvement of a foreign government threatening and killing Canadian citizens on Canadian soil" and went on to allege that Indian diplomats were collecting information through "covert, clandestine, coercive measures" and passing it on to organised crime to target Canadians.

The Indian statement earlier that day also accused Trudeau of "hostility", citing his 2018 seven-day state visit during which the Canadian prime minister visited Agra, Ahmedabad, Mumbai and Amritsar and had engagements in New Delhi.

His cold reception by the Indian government did not go unnoticed. Indian media reports at that time suggested the state visit was "downgraded," and Modi snubbed Trudeau by bowing out of the Gujarat trip. He also notably didn't post any welcome message on Twitter.

Seemingly unbothered by the very obvious snub, Trudeau pressed on with his tour. His visit to the Golden Temple, the holiest Sikh site, and a photo op with Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan in Mumbai boosted his popularity back at home in Canada. 

Six years later, India's foreign ministry finally commented on the visit, slamming it as a bid to win voter favour. The recent accusation carries weight as Trudeau did win reelection in 2019 and again in a snap election held in 2021.

Insurmountable row

For the time being, India's row with Canada seems to be insurmountable—at least as long as Trudeau's Liberal Party is in power. But the rival Conservative Party looks unlikely to change tack. Its leader, Pierre Poilievre, was among the attendees at a Sikh community event in Toronto in April that used slogans in support of Khalistan.

Trudeau, Toronto's Mayor Olivia Chow, and many parliamentarians were also at the event. Another opposition party leader was also there: Jagmeet Singh of the New Democratic Party (NDP). He is well-known for being vocal on Sikh issues and drawing the ire of India. At the gathering – celebrating the Sikh festival of Khalsa Day ­– Singh called for the community's support for pushing the Canadian government to recognise the 1984 killings of Sikhs in India as "genocide."

That year, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi greenlit Operation Blue Star, where the army used violence to forcibly remove a group of militant Sikh separatists from the Golden Temple. Later that year, she was assassinated by her own Sikh bodyguards, who were angered by the grotesque violence used.

Gandhi's murder led to a wave of anti-Sikh violence, and it remains fresh in the community's memory. Its impact on India's national politics is still felt.  Since then, the Congress Party has never fully regained the support of Indian Sikhs, although growing concern over the BJP ruling party's zealous nationalism has inched some Sikhs closer to Congress. Sikhs ­– like other religious minorities, including Muslims ­­­– also see BJP Hindu nationalist politics as a threat to their distinct identity.

The nature of Canada's accusations against India is explosive and can potentially define bilateral relations for the foreseeable future. But wider bilateral relations, including close trade and business links, have so far held off a bigger confrontation. In the interim, the two countries look poised to remain at loggerheads, with Canada likely to continue demanding Indian cooperation and India refusing to yield to Canadian pressure.

For now, Canada seems to be doubling down on its stance, as it seems to have the backing of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, which comprises Australia, Britain, New Zealand, and the United States. Statements from within this coalition show these countries will back Canada over India despite the latter's good one-on-one relations with them.

These are still early days, but the future of India-Canada relations seems to be inextricably linked to how much space Ottawa gives to its Sikh community regarding its support to the separatist movement back in its ancestral homeland. If this continues, then the nature of future relations looks bleak.