This year, around half the world’s population went to the ballot box, with around 50 elections in countries such as Russia, Taiwan, India, Iran, the UK, Japan, Mexico, and Pakistan. But perhaps the most significant is still to come because on 5 November, Americans go to the polls.
The integrity of this year’s US presidential election faces new challenges, not least those posed by technology. Wholly manufactured audio and video clips, purportedly of candidates, are now almost indistinguishable from real ones. These ‘deepfakes’ be swiftly created and disseminated across social media platforms.
There is a lot at stake. The policies and politics of Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris vary greatly, and the race is intensely competitive.
Technology plays an important role in garnering support and mobilising voters, but alongside the misuse of technology, another major risk to the election’s integrity is intervention by external actors.
Unwanted guests
Other countries may favour one candidate’s policies over another’s, so they aim to sway US public opinion, erode trust in its institutions, and/or propagate misinformation to their preferred candidate’s advantage.
The most significant threats to the US elections stem from interference by Iran and Russia. Each has distinct goals and employs distinct technological tactics. The issue became more pressing in recent weeks after revelations of a cyberattack on Trump’s campaign that targeted critical documents. The campaign accused Iran. In mid-August, US intelligence substantiated those claims.
Around 30 websites and domains connected to a Russian disinformation campaign have also been seized. US authorities say two state-backed Russia Today network employees paid $10m to a Tennessee-based advertising firm to fabricate and disseminate fake news on social media.
To what extent is foreign interference shaping the result of US elections and, of the two main candidates, who stands to gain from the meddling?
Russian interference
Recent revelations about Russian interference in US elections are not new. Moscow has a well-documented history of trying to shape Washington from a distance. Its primary objective is not necessarily to back a particular candidate but rather to erode American confidence in their electoral system and national institutions, intensifying societal divisions and polarisation to the point that it ultimately threatens democracy.
Significant meddling was documented during the 2016 US presidential race between Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton. The personal details of about 50 million American Facebook users were acquired by the British data firm Cambridge Analytica, which harnessed this data to craft psychological profiles intended for use in electoral strategies such as boosting voter turnout.
These profiles were developed by scrutinising Facebook user activities to discern political leanings from liked or shared posts. Cambridge Analytica then targeted these users with customised advertising campaigns aimed at swaying their views. This may involve aligning content with personal concerns. For instance, if users' profiles showed interest in the economy, posts would show Trump as the better choice for the US economy.
