Israel’s former prime minister and defence minister Naftali Bennett once likened Iran and its armed proxy militias around the region to an octopus. By striking the proxies, Israel was only striking the octopus’s tentacles. He argued that Israel would do better to strike the head—Iran.
Israel is doing a good job of striking the tentacles, notably those of Hamas (in Gaza) and Hezbollah (in Lebanon). Others, like the Houthis in Yemen and some Iraq-based militias, have also been hit. Yet it is Hezbollah that has long been Iran’s most potent proxy. It has been accurately described as ‘Iran’s right arm’.
In recent weeks, Israel has taken out much of Hezbollah’s leadership, communications systems, and weapons. Not only was the group’s elusive long-serving Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah killed, but his most likely successor, Hashem Safieddine, is missing, also suspected to have been killed.
In the fury and fear, amidst the bombs and blackouts, rumours and conspiracies are rife. After Hezbollah’s communication devices exploded in a devastating security breach, fingers even pointed at Iran. According to the mutterings, Tehran “sold out” the group in secret negotiations with Israel and the Americans.
This theory emerged after Iran’s repeated assertions that it did not want to be dragged into a direct war with Israel, as evidenced by its perceived reluctance to retaliate when Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated on Iranian soil in Tehran.
However, realistically speaking, these accusations against Tehran simply do not stack up. Iran has heavily invested in Hezbollah for decades. It is Iran’s most powerful and important tool. Why would they allow Israel to 'eliminate it'?
Chance to hit out
Perhaps Iran miscalculated. It seems that Hamas’s attack against Israel on 7 October 2023—and Hezbollah's decision after that to launch a “supportive war”—gave Benjamin Netanyahu his golden opportunity. The Israeli prime minister, deeply unpopular in Israel and at risk of being removed from power, saw in this attack a once-in-a-lifetime chance to defeat Israel's enemies and break Iran’s proxy encirclement.
When US President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race, Netanyahu knew that the White House's positions were no longer relevant until a successor was in place. He saw in this a green light to wage war.
