Politics

From unicorns to dystopians: The disappearance of Israel's centre-centre

With extremists like Ben Gvir and Smotrich pushing the Overton window so far right, Netanyahu looks moderate by default

Nash Weerasekera/Majalla

From unicorns to dystopians: The disappearance of Israel's centre-centre

Ahmed Maher

last update on 25 Sep 2024

Nearly one year into the Gaza war, public opinion in Israel has been so influenced by the incumbent government’s extremist and iron-fisted policies toward the Palestinians, Lebanon and the moribund two-state solution—that the positions of current right-wing politicians are increasingly looking centrist and are garnering more support from the average Israeli citizen.

This trend was reflected in recent polls that gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud party an edge over other parties if elections were held last month. Israel has an empty centre.

Netanyahu came to power in December 2022 after forming a 64-member coalition in the 120-seat Israeli Knesset—comprised mostly of his Likud party with 32 seats and Religious Zionists with 14 seats. After months of plummeting popularity in the aftermath of 7 October 2023, Netanyahu’s approval rating has climbed for the first time since the start of the Gaza war.

Subsequent polls since at least May have seen it steadily rise. This is a remarkable turnaround, given the fact that Israel is currently embroiled in the longest-running war in its history and looks to be heading towards an escalated war with Hezbollah in Lebanon—and possibly a direct war with Iran itself.

Netanyahu’s rising popularity also comes despite his controversial judicial ‘reforms’ that have sparked the largest anti-government demonstrations since Israel was created in 1948, massive security failures under his watch, dozens of hostages not yet freed from Hamas captivity and his insistence on re-occupying (at least for now) parts of Gaza.

How can this be explained? For starters, the saturation of the Israeli public with extremist rhetoric has increasingly pushed moderate opposition parties to the fringes. Extremist figures like National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotritch have been the key proponents of racist policies and criminal actions toward Palestinians—the former even being convicted of supporting a terrorist organisation.

With such extremists pushing the Overton window so far to the right, Netanyahu looks relatively moderate by default.

Overton window shift

With such extremists pushing the Overton window so far to the right, Netanyahu looks relatively moderate by default. But it isn't only because of an eclipsing left-wing opposition, as centrist secular figures in Israel are increasingly adopting more right-wing positions to court votes in the coming parliamentary election.

Take longtime centrist leader Yair Lapid as an example. When I interviewed him in the Knesset in Jerusalem last December, he had expressed support for a two-state solution at the time, although he said it could be "significantly delayed" given the war in Gaza and its aftermath.

A few months later, he criticised Ireland, Norway and Spain's decision to unilaterally recognise a Palestinian state, describing it as "disgraceful". He also criticised the UN's top court, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), for issuing a ruling ordering Israel to immediately halt its military offensive in Rafah.

Before 7 October, Lapid's unique selling point was his ability to convince voters that he is 'centre-centre'; namely, that he does not lean towards the left bloc nor the right. But more and more, Israel's centre-left has moved centre-right, while its actual left has almost completely vanished.

What happened on 7 October has militarised Israeli public opinion, pushing their politics further to the right and tested the limits of the country's morals.

Before 7 October, Lapid's unique selling point was his ability to convince voters that he is 'centre-centre'; namely, that he does not lean towards the left bloc nor the right.

Reuters — An Israeli protester surrounded by smoke from flare holds up a poster featuring a hostage who was kidnapped during the October 7 attack

Support among Israeli Jews for a Palestinian state next to Israel nosedived to around 20% in 2020 from 71% in 2010, while their support for one state with unequal rights for the Palestinians doubled to 42%. The two polls were conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah and the International Programme in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University.

And although Israelis might not like Netanyahu personally, they support his right-wing security policies in general. But with centrists adopting nearly identical positions as the right—no prosecution of Israeli soldiers for their alleged war crimes in Gaza, no Palestinian state, no withdrawal from Gaza anytime soon and now a looming scorched-earth policy in Lebanon—voters have very little incentive to throw Netanyahu overboard at this point.

In this current political climate, anyone advocating for occupied East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state seems like a unicorn. Meanwhile, the dystopian extremist figures dominating the public discourse look like they will be calling the shots for the foreseeable future.

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