Why Syria and Iran are letting Israeli air strikes go unanswered

Growing Iranian influence

Russia's military is also active in Syria. It's been nine years since Moscow put boots on the ground there. At the time, many had hoped that Moscow's presence would help curb Iran's influence in the country. So did Israel. Its prime ministers, including Benjamin Netanyahu, held multiple meetings with Russia's President Vladimir Putin to address this issue.

In July 2018, a Reuters report quoted a senior Israeli official, revealing Tel Aviv's diplomatic position amid the more complex picture on the ground in Syria: "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Russia that Israel did not intend to threaten Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's rule and asked Moscow to work to remove Iranian forces from Syria." For his part, Netanyahu directly told Putin in Moscow: "We won't take action against the al-Assad regime."

Around this time, the Washington Post revealed that before a summit between the United States and Russia, held in Helsinki in July 2018, Putin had come to an understanding with Netanyahu: Israel would recognise the Syrian army's control over the southern provinces of Dara'a, As-Suwayda, and Quneitra while adhering to the 1974 disengagement agreement. In return, Moscow committed to convincing Iran to keep its forces no closer than 80 kilometres from the Israeli-Syrian border and assured Israel it would not interfere with air strikes targeting Iranian weapons facilities in Syria.

But in the years since this agreement was struck, Iran's influence has only strengthened, and its territorial control in Syria has expanded. Even before Putin became entangled in the war in Ukraine, he struggled to meet these commitments. 

The Syrian regime's silence in the face of frequent and almost daily Israeli air strikes is notable. But Iran's silence is even more striking. The more it exercises its supposed doctrine of "strategic patience" by not responding to the heavy losses Israel is inflicting on it in Syria, the more it loses credibility.

Since 7 October, Israeli strikes targeting Iranian interests have increased – not only within Syria but even inside Iran – with no response proportionate to the scale of these attacks. Notably, the assassination of Hamas's politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has remained unanswered weeks later, and the attack on Iran's consulate in Damascus prompted only a token response.

Read more: From strategic patience to sincere promise: Where will Iran's strike take the region?

A deal with the West?

Iran appears to be banking on reaching a deal with the West—a strategy openly hinted in the upper echelons of government, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The country is under heavy sanctions and is grappling with severe economic difficulties. For his part, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad is betting that he will be rewarded for his neutrality in the Gaza war—along with his silence over the proxy conflict involving Iran on Syrian soil.

For now, the proxy conflict in Syria between Israel and Iran shows no sign of abating. And it is highly likely that the recent military operation in Masyaf is a lot more severe than official reports let on. Events there show that Syria has become a battleground for various international powers. For its part, Iran is unlikely to relinquish territory within Syria, which remains integral to its regional ambitions.

All the while, the Damascus regime continues to keep its distance from these major developments, even as they unfold within its own borders.