While some may breathe a sigh of relief that Hezbollah’s retaliation for the assassination of its top military commander, Fuad Shukr, has not ignited a broader conflict, it would be naive to think the storm has passed. Iran continues to signal its intention to retaliate separately for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. More critically, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ability to skilfully leverage these near-war provocations to revive his political fortunes at home means the regional tension is far from over.
Despite Israel's severe security, economic, and diplomatic challenges, both Netanyahu and his Likud party are now leading in multiple polls for the first time since 7 October. This shocking political rebound suggests that Netanyahu will likely continue to play the aggression card against Iran and Hezbollah, using it to cement his unexpected political comeback and stay ahead in the polls.
Netanyahu's strategy of prolonging the military offensive on Gaza is no secret—it is a calculated move to secure his political survival. After the 7 October Hamas attack, many saw him as a politically dead man walking, likely to be declared finished once the fighting stopped. Yet, against all odds, Netanyahu has not just kept his government afloat; he's also managed an astounding comeback in the polls—something that seemed impossible just months ago.
This dramatic turnaround was first noted in the 9 August weekly poll by Maariv, which showed that if elections were held that day, Netanyahu's Likud party would come out on top. In a head-to-head matchup, 42% of respondents favoured Netanyahu as prime minister, compared to 40% for Benny Gantz, the National Unity party leader who left Netanyahu's war cabinet in June to rejoin the opposition. This was not an isolated result; the momentum continued. In subsequent polls on 16 and 23 August, Likud maintained its lead, and Netanyahu edged out Gantz, though by a tighter margin.
