Political risk from Trump's hint at the strength of the Dollar

Trump vs the forces of the free market

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Political risk from Trump's hint at the strength of the Dollar

When the founders of the United States issued the dollar in 1792, it is easy to imagine that they did not expect it to be deliberately devalued.

But that is exactly what happened in 1834, when the amount of gold backing a single unit of the currency was reduced to 1.5 grams from 1.6 grams.

The pricing of gold-backed currencies changes more naturally over time. For the dollar, this came when the US overcame several financial crises in its history, either side of the Civil War and into the Great Depression in 1929, when an ounce of gold cost $20.67.

And from the depression to the end of World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt took many measures to protect the dollar’s exchange rate.

Donald Trump, the former president running again for the White House, has brought the issue of dollar valuation into the campaign, hitting out at what he sees as an over-priced currency which is damaging US competitiveness.

There are global implications for any attempt to weaken the relative value of the world’s reserve currency, not least via its role in pricing commodities including oil. Al Majalla looks at the issue for important insight into what could be a theme in the campaign and a major part of international geopolitics afterwards, starting with how the dollar became the world’s lynchpin means of exchange.

The gold standard of Bretton Woods

As World War II was ending, major central banks held the Bretton Woods Conference in New Hampshire. Attended by representatives from 44 countries in 1944, it produced a series of important political and economic developments

They agreed fixed exchange rates, pegging the dollar to gold at a price of $35 an ounce, with other currencies rates of exchange set against the US’s unit of money.

But the move proved to be a constraint on the US Treasury as the wider global economic conditions changed, and over time the system, designed for stability, came under pressure.

The Bretton Woods system ended in 1971. President Richard Nixon liberalised the dollar’s exchange rate and abolished the gold standard, to let the dollar float freely on the market to relieve pressure on the US Treasury caused by the peg to gold.

But the dollar remained the main currency used in international trade. Oil transactions continued to be priced in dollars. It is estimated that around 40% of global trade transactions are conducted in dollars, while the US contribution to international trade is only about 10% of the total.

Rising inflation was perhaps one of the main factors that led to the collapse of Bretton Woods. The increased tension in southeast Asia from 1958 to 1971 – when the US became embroiled in the Vietnam War in an attempt to stop the spread of communism – was a major part of the picture.

One could argue that one of the main factors that led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system was the policies that caused inflation rates to rise. The period from 1958 to 1971 included increased tensions in Southeast Asia, with the United States becoming embroiled in the Vietnam War in an attempt to prevent the communists in North Vietnam from taking over South Vietnam.

Modern day dollar rivals

Currently, there are currencies competing with the dollar, also used in international trade transactions, most notably the euro and the China’s renminbi.

Naturally, the use of currencies depends on the role that a country plays in international trade. China, for example, has expanded its export capabilities since the 1980s, which has strengthened its ability to agree with its trading partners to settle its imports in Chinese currency.

However, many countries only use the dollar to settle international trade accounts, especially oil-exporting countries that receive payment for their oil exports in dollars. The same is true for the US, Canada, and many Latin American countries.

official statistics from the US Census Bureau show that the trade balance deficit ranged from $90bn to $99bn per month from January to May 2024

The main financial dilemma facing the US relates to its trade balance and the balance of payments deficit. The country achieved a surplus or small deficit in international trade during the 1960s and 1970s. Since the mid-1970s, the trade balance deficit has risen. Recent data indicate that the deficit reached $773bn in 2023, and official statistics from the US Census Bureau show that the trade balance deficit ranged from $90bn to $99bn per month from January to May 2024.

 This results from the large volume of US imports, which ranged from $259bn to $267bn per month, while US exports were estimated between $169bn and $174bn per month during the same period.

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Since the 1960s, the US has lost its comparative advantages in many manufacturing industries, from textiles and leather to electronics and automobiles to rivals including Japan, then South Korea, and later China.

These are significant factors that have led to the increase in imports and the decrease in exports. Additionally, the high consumption appetite in US society increases the demand for imported goods and products from abroad.

Trump's dangerous ideas

This is the context in which Trump's ideas over the dollar have arrived. He wants a weaker dollar to boost the relative competitiveness of US industry globally. But the impact of this on the balance of payments deficit is likely to be negligible.

That is because the US current account deficit is broader. It reflects the trade balance of goods and services and the income flows to and from US citizens and foreign nationals. It decreased by about $153bn, or 15.7%, in 2023 to $819bn. The US Census Bureau confirms that this decline resulted from a decrease in imports of goods. This deficit represents 3% of the US GDP in the same year, which reached $27tn. 

Nonetheless, devaluing the dollar will not go unnoticed. There are direct investments priced in dollars by sovereign funds, foreign investors, institutions, and individuals in the US. The value of foreign direct investments in the country was estimated at $289bn. This doesn't include priced investments, bonds, and stocks listed on exchanges, and other tradable financial instruments.

China, through its various sovereign funds, holds significant US assets, including an important portion in US government debt via Treasury bonds and bills, with holdings valued at $771bn.

Oil dollars devalued?

There are also significant investments by Gulf sovereign funds in the United States. Abu Dhabi's sovereign funds invest 52% of their funds in the United States, and Kuwait's sovereign fund invests 33% of its funds there.

Gulf countries have another concern regarding the dollar exchange rate: how to preserve the real value of their oil revenues

So, there are international interests in maintaining the stability of the dollar's exchange rate, especially regarding sovereign and private assets in the United States.Any sustained weakening of the dollar would result in losses for investors if these assets were revalued in other currencies.

Gulf countries have another concern regarding the dollar exchange rate:  how to preserve the real value of their oil revenues so their spending programmes and commitment to their people are not undermined.

It won't be easy to designate another currency or payment tools to replace the dollar.

Dealing with importing countries using their currencies would be a significant risk for the region's countries. Settling international trade obligations in non-dollar currencies would be complicated, and possibly unfeasible.

 Gulf countries should bring this issue to the attention of the International Monetary Fund and global financial institutions to address the potential dangers of dollar devaluation.

Read more: More so than advisors, Trump's instincts will make US foreign policy

Such a policy might not be possible for any new Trump administration if he wins the election in November.

There will likely be widespread opposition from economic circles and the Federal Reserve.

Additionally, devaluation will harm investment flows to the US. There are possibilities for moderating the exchange rate without arbitrary decisions, including reducing the discount rate and bank interest rates, a move expected during the second half of this year.

Recent economic data underscore the importance of lowering the discount rate to stimulate the US economy.

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