Ukraine’s shock gains in Kursk region have turned the tables on Russia

The offensive has prompted a characteristically robust response from the Kremlin. It has vowed to "force the enemy" out of Russia. Putin himself is deliberately not publicly calling the offensive an "invasion" to avoid any sense of panic among the Russian populace.

Nevertheless, there can be little doubt that the Ukraine's attack has significantly changed the course of the conflict in its favour, with the Ukrainians appearing determined to press home their advantage by seizing even more Russian ground.

After the success of their initial assault on the Kursk region, there are indications that Ukrainian forces have also been conducting cross-border operations in the neighbouring region of Belgorod.

Reports claim that a 200-strong Ukrainian force, supported by armoured vehicles, attacked a border checkpoint at Nekhoteyevka. While the attack was reported by Russian military bloggers, the size of the Ukrainian breakthrough in Belgorod remains unclear, with Russian officials saying the border was "under control".

Zelensky resurgent

Even so, the recent dramatic military gains have undoubtedly provided Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with a major boost. It is one he believes will help to turn the eventual outcome of the conflict in his country's favour.

Speaking at a forum to discuss the conflict this week, Zelensky claimed that his forces' capture of significant amounts of Russian territory was part of what he called a "victory plan" that he intends to present to US President Joe Biden when the Ukrainian leader makes a planned trip to the White House next month, when he will also attend the annual summit of the United Nations General Assembly.

Zelensky told the forum the success of the plan would depend on whether the Biden administration would give Ukraine "what is in this plan or not, [and] whether we will be free to use this plan, or not".

"It may sound too ambitious for some, but it is an important plan for us," he added, saying that he would also show the plan to both US presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

While the seizure of Russian territory has increased pressure on Putin to demonstrate to the Russian people that Moscow will ultimately achieve its war aims, the Ukrainians have made it clear that they have no desire to occupy the captured ground permanently, unlike the Russians in large tracts of eastern Ukraine.

According to Syrskyi, the main objective is not to hold on to territory, but to use it as a bargaining chip in any future peace negotiations. Another reason for Ukraine launching the offensive, he said, was to distract Russia's forces away from their own offensive in eastern Ukraine, where they have spent most of the summer attempting to capture the strategically important town of Pokrovsk, an important hub with a key railway station.

Gathering momentum and military control

In another sign that the momentum of the conflict is moving decisively in Ukraine's favour, Zelensky also revealed that Kyiv had recently carried out the first successful test of a domestically produced ballistic missile. He congratulated his country's defence industry, but declined to share any more details.

Although Ukraine has already used some US-provided ballistic missiles against Russia, it has been working to develop the domestic production of military hardware to diminish its dependency on Western aid. Zelensky also revealed that newly donated US-made F-16 fighter jets have been used to intercept some of the missiles fired by Russia in recent days.

The Ukrainians have destroyed a number of key bridges linking Russia to the captured territory in Kursk, severely limiting Russian attempts to send much-needed reinforcements to repel the attacks. In effect, the Ukrainians have now established military command over the area under their control.

This has meant that Russia has had to rely on firing a barrage of drones and missiles at key targets in Ukraine to deter Kyiv's offensive, leaving several people dead and causing blackouts in various areas of the country,

Despite the ferocity of the Russian response, Zelensky appears to have no intention of halting his own offensive. Instead, he claims Moscow's deeper violence simply indicates that the Kremlin has no intention to stop the war. "When they want [peace talks], they don't launch 230 air strikes," he wryly commented.

Certainly, the prospect of Russia engaging in any future detente appears extremely remote. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that "the topic of negotiations at the moment has pretty much lost its relevance." 

Nor can there be any doubt that the Ukrainians' expertly executed offensive against Russia, months in the planning, has taken the Kremlin by surprise. One of the great mysteries of the conflict in recent months was what had become of the Western-trained Ukrainian fighting brigades that had been equipped with sophisticated Western weaponry to help Kyiv win the war.

Prized combat units well deployed

After last summer's much-anticipated Ukrainian offensive to seize in the initiative on the battlefield failed to materialise, it was generally assumed that many of these prized combat units had become caught up in the bloody war of attrition along the length of Ukrainian border with Russia during the past year.

Instead of wasting precious resources dealing with Russia's so-called "meat-grinder" assaults in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv has instead been planning to use its new combat formations to launch a surprise attack against a known weak spot in the Russian defences. In the Kursk region, Russia's military was known to be relying on ill-trained and ill-experienced conscripts for defence.

The planning that went into Ukraine's most important assault on the Russian motherland was clearly first-rate, backed by strict operational security.

According to analysis conducted by Western intelligence, videos taken of Ukrainian ground operations, together with satellite imagery, concealed the real intentions of the Ukrainian advance. The Russians were given the impression that the troop movements were nothing more than an exercise in defensive reinforcement.

As Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the UK's Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) in London told CNN:

 "[Ukrainians have] demonstrated that they can pull off such a secretive and significant operation successfully, they can penetrate Russian territory so this is no longer the red line, and they … are still very much committed to fight for their country, that there is no such thing as war fatigue, and they're willing to take these, in a way, extreme measures for the sake of defending their country."

The Ukrainian ability to outwit their adversaries and capture Russian territory presents an enormous challenge for Putin. His hopes that the conflict would be over within a matter of days now looks short-sighted in the extreme.

Hell on earth

Rather than fighting on Ukrainian soil, Moscow now finds itself struggling to defend its own territory. This fact has certainly not been lost on the legions of pro-Putin bloggers who have previously given their whole-hearted support .

One Russian military blogger called the situation "hell on earth". Another pro-war blogger, Anastasia Kashevarova, said on Telegram:

"We knew that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would go to Kursk Oblast. We knew that they were pulling forces together. We knew everything as usual, the guys from the fields reported it, but the higher-ups did nothing."

Another pro-Putin blogger, Ravreba, said there is "a complete disregard for the state of war in Moscow" and complained:

 "It is more convenient for the new minister of defence to calculate how much the grandfathers stole than to kick generals who do something only when they are bent over with a whip and an axe."

With even full-bloodied Russian supporters of their country's war in Ukraine questioning the ability of their armed forces to deliver victory, Putin may yet come to rue the day he decided invade the territory of his Ukrainian neighbours.