Back to base: calm restored as both Israel and Hezbollah claim 'victory'

Both sides have made it clear they would target the other's infrastructure, as well as their adversary's "home front" - which alludes to civilian centres.

Instead of this nightmare scenario, however, an Israeli preventative strike was carried out just as Hezbollah began its attack, removing part of the threat.

The drones and missiles that had been aimed at Tel Aviv—as Nasrallah himself confirmed—never made it to their intended target. Nasrallah claimed that Israel was "covering up" its losses, but Israel simply could not hide damage to a central facility.

Explosions would have been heard, ambulances would have been seen, social media would have been abuzz with videos of the aftermath. Still, it is better that Hezbollah be allowed to tout its imagined victory, rather than roll the dice again.

A minor miracle

Nasrallah declared the operation a total success that went exactly as planned, while Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu took pride in Israel's ability to take out 1,000 launchers in a major aerial operation.

This latest round of violence, amongst the most dangerous yet, still killed three in Lebanon (including a member of the military wing of Amal, Hezbolalh's Shiite ally) and an Israeli soldier.

It could have been many more, though. Now, both have pulled back from the brink of a devastating conflict. With such minimal loss of life, to do so is a minor miracle, of the kind the region rarely sees.

The sense is that the region cannot avoid a war forever, and both sides hint that this is not the end of it. Nasrallah said Sunday was solely Hezbollah's response, suggesting that Iran and its other proxies may have their own ideas.

Hezbollah added that this was only the "first phase". Likewise, Netanyahu said Israel's preventative strike was "not the end of the story", with talk of Israel needed to "change the picture".

Talk of a follow-up

There is little appetite for a major conflict in Tel Aviv or southern Beirut, but those same decision-makers are also increasingly cornered and out of options, sometimes because of their own choices.

Nasrallah claimed that Hezbollah would "follow-up" on its attack, to gauge whether the result is satisfactory, before either deeming its response to be concluded, or else continue with additional "phases".

This buys time. Nasrallah did not specify what kind of "result" he was looking for. One could be restored deterrence. Yet this also compounds the risk of any future escalation. It is not clear that Nasrallah knows where he is going with this threat.

Hezbollah may hope that a "result" will be a ceasefire in Gaza. Nasrallah seemed to hint at this, claiming Hezbollah's attack on Israel could have a positive impact on Gaza, and reiterated that Lebanon was a "support front", to relieve pressure on the enclave and help Hamas survive.

Not walking the walk

In Israel, mayors and local representatives in the north have suspended contact with the government. They feel they are being ignored and point to the state's full resources being used to prevent an attack on Tel Aviv, while they come under fire.

Netanyahu's tough talking is partly a response to this internal disquiet, yet even he knows that a war with Hezbollah could be devastating for Israel, with no guarantees that the threat would be removed.

His words imply that Israel has a plan, yet Hezbollah still feels able to fire on Israel, Hamas is not yet defunct, there is no ceasefire in Gaza, and there is no agreement for Hezbollah to pull back from the Israeli border.

Sunday's shenanigans and the subsequent calm mean that the region has avoided a war that no-one wants. But the water is still on a rolling boil. At some point, the temperature will be turned up again, and the lid will come off.