If Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump wins a second term in November’s election, US policy would shift in several big areas, according to The Economist.
His party's platform - a 16-page document that provides insight into how Trump could lead - calls for a massive programme to deport undocumented immigrants and impose tighter controls on who enters the country.
In addition, trading partners should expect higher tariffs and restrictions (Trump plans to tax all imports). Military aid for most allies would likely become more conditional, dependent on an increase in the recipient country's own spending.
Examining the global repercussions, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ranked America’s 70 largest trading partners by their exposure to Trumpian policies.
The ranking, which the EIU calls the “Trump risk index,” is based on countries’ exposure to American policies on trade, security and immigration.
Mexico, America’s largest trading partner, tops the list. Stricter immigration rules could affect millions of Mexicans who enter America both legally and illegally. Trade deficits are a major concern for Trump; the deficit with Mexico rose to $152bn in 2023, up 37% since 2020.
Germany ranks third, the highest of any NATO ally. China, against which Trump waged a trade war during his first term, ranks the highest of any country in Asia and sixth overall. Trump has threatened to slap a 60% levy on its goods.
Countries that are less reliant on America rank the lowest. Australia ranks low on the index because it has built stronger trade links with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Russia, which has already been cut off from most forms of trade with the West, places 63rd on the index.
