The politics of Israel’s unprecedented strikes in Beirut and Tehran

A gloating Benjamin Netanyahu gives himself leeway with his far-right coalition partners, but Israelis are in no mood to cheer, while Iran and Hezbollah are working out how to hit back

Smoke rises after an Israeli air-raid on the town of Shamaa (Chamaa) in southern Lebanon on August 1, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters.
AFP
Smoke rises after an Israeli air-raid on the town of Shamaa (Chamaa) in southern Lebanon on August 1, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters.

The politics of Israel’s unprecedented strikes in Beirut and Tehran

The consecutive strikes against a close advisor to Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh have been met in Israel with muted celebration and angst.

By carrying out two attacks in Beirut and Tehran in less than 24 hours, Israel flexed its muscle by showing that it could find and hit high-value targets even at the heart of enemy territory.

Haniyeh was killed in one of the most secure areas of northern Tehran, while Fuad Shukr was targeted in Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Beirut.

The attacks could prompt a full-scale war with Hezbollah and could torpedo efforts to release Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza. This double possibility explains why Israelis did not feel like celebrating.

Channelling 007

For Netanyahu, however, the attacks are an unmitigated success. Moments after Shukr was killed, the Prime Minister’s Office posted a picture of Netanyahu during the attack, seemingly on the phone, as if he had given the order himself.

After Haniyeh was killed, and despite telling all Israeli officials not to discuss it, Netanyahu released a video comparing himself to fictional British spy James Bond. “Netanyahu, Benjamin Netanyahu,” he said, in reference to 007’s famous tagline.

His nonchalance and machismo contrasted sharply with the uncertainty and anxiety of both the region and of the families of Israeli hostages left wondering if that now meant the end of negotiations, given that Haniyeh was leading them for Hamas.

Ricardo Moraes/Reuters
People watch images of the October 7 attack as Israelis mark 300 days since then and call for an immediate release of hostages being held in Gaza.

Netanyahu was probably pleased for the good PR. Earlier, he had visiting Majdal Shams, a Druze-majority town in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights where a rocket most think was Hezbollah’s killed 12 children last week. Residents there did not hold back from expressing their anger at the Israeli PM.

Fractures showing

Even more worrying were the riots that broke out at two military bases after Israel’s military police detained nine Israeli soldiers for allegedly torturing and sexually abusing a male Palestinian prisoner from Gaza who was being held there.

This showed a deep fracture within Israeli society, as religious nationalists, Israeli soldiers, and even a far-right Member of Parliament from Netanyahu’s own party, took part in protests that became riots, to defend the soldiers accused of torture. As always: when things are bad, Netanyahu is notably absent.

The attacks could prompt a full-scale war and torpedo efforts to release the hostages still in Gaza… Israelis do not feel like celebrating

There are two other, deeper crises that may break the government apart. One concerns the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews. Tensions are high after a court decision forced the military to start drafting several thousand of them.

The second is two Netanyahu coalition allies—his far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir, and the ultra-Orthodox Shas party—colliding. Ben Gvir wants more control over wartime decisions so is using his veto to stall Shas-sponsored laws to blackmail Netanyahu into giving him a greater say.

Although the crisis is temporarily frozen by the Israeli Parliament being in recess until the end of October, these are swords hanging over Netanyahu's head.

Politics vs opportunity

Some will wonder whether politics influenced the decision to kill Shukr and Haniyeh, yet while political calculus cannot be ruled out, both strikes were also opportunity attacks that had much to do with tactical circumstances.

AP
Hezbollah fighters stand behind the coffin of their top commander Fouad Shukur, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday, July 30, during his funeral procession in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 1, 2024.

The attack in Beirut was a response to Majdal Shams, something Netanyahu could not have predicted, and the second strike in Tehran used a rare opportunity to strike Hamas's head while he was away from Qatar.

Israel will likely be reluctant to operate in Qatar, as this would completely torpedo negotiations and alienate Gulf countries far beyond.

If anything, the strikes show that "good things come to those who wait," a motto that could be Netanyahu's strapline. For a prime minister in need of a boost, they will have given Netanyahu some room to manoeuvre.

Relieving pressure

Mission success lets Netanyahu once again play 'Mr Security'—a strongman who rises above petty politics to keep Israel safe—despite the intelligence and military failures of 7 October being an Israeli security lapse of historic proportions.

Mission success lets Netanyahu once again play 'Mr Security', a strongman who rises above petty politics to keep Israel safe

For now, Netanyahu can divert pressure from his far-right cabinet colleagues, who have wanted him to go further. The recess even lets him consider options that were unavailable to him politically just a week ago.

The killing of Haniyeh may let him finalise a Gaza ceasefire that includes a hostage-release deal. One had been close to completion, before Netanyahu began adding new conditions to the draft.

Yet Iran and its allies are poised to respond. Netanyahu, who generally avoids rolling the dice, may have bet that they would hold back, still wanting to avoid all-out war. But for all his gloating, the risks have never been this high.

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