Defined in November: Joe Biden’s legacy is still to be confirmed

For many in the Arab world, the disaster of Gaza and the catastrophe of Afghanistan will shape their memories of President Biden. For Americans, he could yet be the man who opened the door to Trump II

Defined in November: Joe Biden’s legacy is still to be confirmed

After months of escalating pressure from various quarters, including his own party, US President Joe Biden has withdrawn his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election in November.

Some see it as a testament to his leadership and profound patriotism, prioritising the nation’s interests above his own.

Others felt a mix of relief that he finally let go, coupled with anxiety and fear that his decision might have come too late to alter the outcome of the contest.

Although he still has nearly six months left in office, Biden’s decision to end his bid for re-election essentially closes the book on his tenure and starts the debate as to his political legacy.

Joe’s half century

While the question of legacy haunts everyone, the stakes are never higher than for a president approaching the end of his reign.

For Biden, his extensive career is marked by a wealth of roles and contributions, having served as a US Senator from 1973-2009, and as Barack Obama’s Vice President from 2009-17.

Throughout, Biden has played a significant role in reshaping the international order, especially after the Soviet Union’s collapse.

As vice-president and president, he helped renegotiate America’s role in a changing world with a rising China and emerging powers asserting their independence.

In power, Biden introduced groundbreaking climate legislation, boosting US investment at an unprecedented scale.

He also reassured allies of America’s commitment to the multilateral agreements, after former president Donald Trump’s threats to withdraw.

In power, Biden introduced ground-breaking climate legislation and reassured allies of America's commitment to the multilateral agreements

However, none of these achievements might impact how he will be remembered as much as the outcome of the upcoming election, because Biden's legacy now hinges significantly on who takes over the Oval Office in January.

It comes down to Trump

If Democrats manage to defy expectations and beat Trump, Biden will be credited as the president who defeated Trump not once, but twice.

Yet although the selection of a new Democratic candidate seems to be progressing swiftly, Biden's desired outcome is far from guaranteed.

Biden nominated his Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him and she quickly won overwhelming support from Democratic leaders, making her the frontrunner.

She broke US political fundraising records by raising $81m in 24 hours and appears to appeal to a broader range of American voters than Biden. Most polls still show Trump in the lead, but much could change between now and November.

If the Democrats lose the election, Biden's legacy will take a starkly different turn. He will likely be blamed for not stepping down sooner, leaving his party with insufficient time to rally and mount a successful campaign.

At worse, he could be seen as the man who handed the presidency back to Donald Trump on a silver platter.

Seen from elsewhere

While the jury is still out on Biden's legacy at home, many in the Arab world and beyond believe it is already tarnished by his foreign policy choices.

While the jury is still out on Biden's legacy at home, many in the Arab world and beyond believe it is already tarnished by his foreign policy choices. 

Just as Syria will forever stain Obama's legacy (by not acting when Assad used chemical weapons on his own people), Biden's may be marred by Gaza, his strong support for Israel, his failure to save Palestinian lives, and his slow decision making.

Additionally, Biden's disastrous US exit from Afghanistan—which was catastrophic for locals and humiliating for the United States after a 20-year mission—will also leave a lasting stain.

Whether Americans taste that same bitterness in their mouths when they remember him could yet be revealed in November.

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